Lebanon-Syria border clashes reflect new realities on the ground | Features

Beirut, Lebanon – Recent Clashes Along the Lebanon-syria border have drawn in their respective armies and threaten to disrupt both government ‘efforts to establish their authority.

The Clashes appeared to have calced for the moment, as a ceasefire agreement between the two parties was reached late on Monday, march 17.

Experts and Analysts Say the Clashes are tied to the new reality on the ground, where Bashar Al-Assad is no longer in Power and Hezbollah’s influence may be waning.

A Blurry Border

Following Hezbollah’s intervention in the Syrian War, it extended its authority over both sides of the border.

But after Bashar al-Assad’s regime spectacularly collapsed in early December, cutting off a key supply line for a hezbollah diminished by an indiscriminate Israeli war on Lebanon, a struggle emerged.

“[With] The Fall of Al-Assad’s Regime and Hezbollah’s Weakening, The Syrian-Lebanese Border-and the Zones of Influence Along It-Is Being Redrawn, ”Armenak Tokmajyan, a nonresident Scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center, Told Al Jazeera.

Lebanon’s Border with Syria is 375km (233 miles) long and, despite domestic and international efforts over the years, is still not demarcated.

Its backged terrain, paired with the historical absence of the Lebanese State, made it ripe for smuggling – particularly in the area where the clashes took place.

“This section of the Border-Like the entire Lebanese-syrian border-became increasingly blurred during the Syrian War,” Tokmaiyan said. “Hezbollah expanded into syria through social, Economic, and Military Networks, Facilitating Both Licit and Illicit Cross-Border Activities.”

On the Syrian side, Maher Al-Assad’s 4th Armored Division Facilitated Smuggling Operations with Crime Syndicates in Lebanon, according to Caroline Rose, Director of the Strategic Blind Spots Portfolio at the New Lines Institute Think Tank.

The Crime Syndicates are often run by members of Powerful Tribes in the Northeast, who play integral roles in politics and local social affairs and have built relationships with hezbollah syncah syncah’s establishment in the 1980s, often having overlapping or shared.

They “now find themselves without a key ally and source of cross-border protection”, Rose said, noting that since the fall of the al-Assad regime, the 4th armored division could no longer operate.

New Governments have come to power in Lebanon and Syria and their respective leaders have spoken about the need to demarcate the border. This would disrupt smuggling routes for both crime syndicates and hezbollah who, experts said, benefits from the current lawlessness along the undefined border.

“These clashes signify a key power struggle not only between criminal syndicates and clans engaged in illicit smuggling over the control of routes, but a greater struggle with state forces as their capacity grows in syria and Lebanon, respectively,” rose said.

Clashing narratives

The Latest Round started on Saturday, March 15, After the Killing of Three Syrian Soldiers. The circumstances of how they died, however, are disputed.

Syria’s Interim Government Claims Hezbollah Fighters Entered Syrian territory, ambushed and kidnapped three soldiers near the zeita dam, brought them back to lebanese territory, and executed them.

مجموعة من ميليشيا حزب الله تὀوم وعبر كمين بخطف ثلاثة من عناصر الجيش العربي على الحدود السورية قبية قبية قلسود الود الاود ال draw قلسident grad ق. زيتا غرب حمص 📤 pic.twitter.com/i3eq0diiqh

– الوكالة العربية السورية للأنباء – protect (@sanaajel) March 16, 2025

“A group from hezbollah militia ambushed and kidnapped three syrian arab army personnel on the Syrian-Lebanese border near the zeita dam, West of Hims, before taking them to Lebanese territory and executing them on the spot,” March 16.

The bodies of the three men were returned to Syria via the Lebanese Red Cross.

Hezbollah denied any involvement in their deaths, saying in a statement it “has no connection to any events taking place within syrian territory”.

Lebanese media reported that the three men entered Lebanese territory and clashed with people from local tribes – some of whom have relationships with hezbollah – who feared they were under attack.

Lebanon’s Minister of Information Paul Morcos said the three syrian men were smugglers, while some local lebanese media said they were smugglers with allegiances to the recently disbanded syrian group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS). Many of Syria’s top officials, including its new leader Ahmed al-sharaa, come from the group.

What is known is that Syria’s ministry of defense laid the blame on hezbollah and dispatched troops to the border in the Homs Province, across from Lebanon’s Northeast, where they begin shelling Lebanese Border Towns.

حشود الجيش العربي السوري قبيل التوجه لطرد ميليشيا حزب الله من مرية حوش السيد علي بريف الὀishing غelop غرب حرب غرب غرب غ.#Ination pic.twitter.com/7fr2kiy3kj

– الوكالة العربية السورية للأنباء – protect (@sanaajel) March 17, 2025

[Translation: Syrian Arab Army forces prepare to expel Hezbollah militia from the village of Hawsh al-Sayyid Ali in the Qusayr countryside, west of Homs.]

The Holding Killed Seven Lebanese Citizens and 10 Syrian Soldiers, While Another 52 Lebanese Were injured. Others were also wounded on the syrian side, including some Journalists embedded with the syrian army.

When the Clashes Began, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun sent Troops to the Area and Instructed Them to Return Fire.

New Border Dynamics

The Sudden presence of the State – Both in Lebanon and Syria – could also pose a threat to hezbollah, who experts said an interest in keeping the situation at the border chaotic.

Marcel Baloukji, a former Brigadier General who Oversaw The Lebanese Army’s Border Committee, Told Al Jazeera much of the Group’s Funding Comes from Smuggling Out by Local Tribes.

“This is camouflage,” Baloukji Told Al Jazeera about Hezbollah’s denials that they were involved. Some of the tribes that clashed with syrian forces, baloukji said, were likely “subcontracted” by hezbollah to keep the area chaotic, so that the group could keep profiting from smuggling operations.

But the group’s influence is on the wane after Israel’s Brutal two-month bombing campaign that killed many party officials, including longtime leader Hassan Nasralah, and the fall of a crucial ally across the border.

Some experts believe the tribes could abandon hezbollah for their own interests, coming to agreements with the Lebanese Army and new syrian authorities.

Hezbollah is also blessed as a pariah by the new government in Syria due to its long standing support and intervention on the side of the now-handed al-Assad.

“The reasons behind such clashes may vary, but what’s clear is that the boundaries and cross-border dynamics are being resthaped,” Tokmaian said.

“And this is just the beginning of this process.”