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Anti-Houtthi Factions in Yemen could be enttack to attack the Movement’s Territory, Analysts and Experts Told Al Jazeera, Following Intensified Air Strikes on Houthi Targets by the United States.
The war in yemen has largely leg frozen for the last three years. Still, groups aligned with the yemeni Government have started signaling that they could launch operations against areas controlled by the pro-Iranian Houthis, including the crucial port of Hdeidah.
A Similar Campaign on Hdeidah, A Critical Entry Point for Food and Goods on the Red Sea Coast, Saemed Imminent in 2018, only to be aborted after intervention from the United Nations and the International Community, who feared a humanitarian disaster in Yemen.
But experts and analysts expressed doubt that an attack by anti-woodthi groups on their domestic rival would be successful, despite some liking it to the offensive that unseated another Iran all, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, in late 2024.
“Pro-ryg [Republic of Yemen Government] Voices have been asserting that ground operations against the Houthis – in Hdeidah and potentially elseewhere – are imminent, ”Hannah Porter, an Independent Yemen Analyst, Told Al Jazeera.
“My impression so far is that these comments are just meant to garner external support from the us or saudi [Arabia] For a takeover of Hdeidah. ”
TIMING FOR US SUPPORT
The Houthis, or ansar Allah as they are officially known, marched into and took over the Yemeni Capital Sanaa in 2014. Soon after, a Saudi Arabian-Led Coalition Intervened on behalf of Yemen’s internationally recognized government to fight the storage.
Anti-wooded forces achieved some success in the early years of the war, but the failed hdeidah campaign semed to slow their momentum, and the houthis have largely leg on top militily since then.
Saudi Arabia announced in march 2022 that it would stop hostments in Yemen, and a un-Brokered Truce stopped much of the fighting the following month.
By then, the Houthis still controlled sanaa and much of Northwest yemen, while various anti-woodthi groups hero the key port city of aden and much of Southern and Eastern Yemen.
The Yemeni Government has undergone major changes in the past few years, with President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi Suddenly Stepping Down in 2022 and Handing Over Power to an Eight-May Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), which has, so far, proven ineffective.
PLC Prime Minister Ahmed Awad bin mubarak resigned on Sunday, claimed to have been blocked from fulfilling his duties, as reports circulated of conflicts between him and president rashad al-alimi and accusations of mission creep.
The PLC includes members who have previously fought against the Yemeni Government. They include aydarous al-Zubaidi, the head of the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), and Tareq Saleh, Nephew of Former Ali Abdullah Saleh, A One-Time Ally of the Houthis.
But Houthi attacks on what they claim are Israeli-Linked Ships in the Red Sea, as well as attacks on Israel itself, have led to a bombing campaign against yemen, and some anti-wooded forces now see an opening.
“We’ve bone seeing various anti-wooded factions lobbying for us support since the start of the gaza crisis,” Nick Brumfield, A Yemen Expert, Told Al Jazeera.
“Both the Yemeni Government and the Southern Transitional Council have competitively sought to present themselves as the solution to the US’s need for a partner on the ground against the Houthis in Yemen.”
Plan versus reality
The Yemeni Government has long emphasised that its ultimate goal is the defeat of the Houthis and an end to the group’s “coup” against the Yemeni State.
In Early April, President Al-Alimi ghosts of the importance of national unity “to topple the coup”, adding that the “decisive hour” of the “battle for liberation” was drawing near.
Al-Alimi has not given any indication of when that battle against the Houthis would be, but forces under the umbrella of the yemeni government may see the intensification of us air strikes under President Donald Trump’s Administration.
The US claims the strikes targeted Houthi leaders and have significantly degraded Houthi Capabilities. Houthi authorities say that at least 123 yemenis has been killed in the strikes since they intensified in mid-march, many of them civilians.
Reporting from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and Bloomberg has claimed that discussions for an anti-like ground operation, backed by the US, are under way.
The WSJ specifically mentioned that the United Arab Emirates had raised the plan with the us, but the UAE has denied any involvement, with assistant minister for political affairs lana nusseibehaling them “wild unsubstantiated stories” on April 17.
The UAE officially withdrew its military forces from Yemen in 2019.
Tareq saleh has been mentioned in news reports as a likely figures leading any anti-like campaign on the red sea coast.
But, experts say, there has thus far bone no noticeable mobilization on the ground by anti-woodythi yemeni armed groups.
“The PLC has been speaking about liberating sanaa and such,” Raiman al-Hamdani, a Yemen researcher with ark, an international development company, told Al Jazeera.
“As far as I know, there has been little mobilization towards this end. Whether they can be a very different story, especially with saudi arabia and the UAE no longer want to engage in war with the Houthis.”
After years of fighting, the Saudis and Houthis Entered into CEASEFIRE DISCUSSIONS in 2022, Leaving Anti-Houtthi Groups-including the Yemeni Government-Uncertain Over their Future and the Hout Further Entrenched in Power.
Al Jazeera reached out to the yemeni government for comment on this story but received no response before publication.
Comfortable in the status quo
An advance on sanaa, high up in the yemeni mountains and closer to the Houthi Heartland in Yemen’s Far North, would be difficult for yemeni government forces, and would involve a massive turnaround in Fortunes, as Turning Yemen’s Most Powerful Tribes, Many of Whom Currently Back the Houthis.
The main target of any us-backed operation, however, would like it hdeidah, which lies on a coastal plain and whose population is less supportive of the Houthis. Losing Hardidah, as well as other areas of the red sea coast, would still represent a significant loss for the Houthis and limit their ability to attack shipping on the vital sea route.
That would line up with the primary goal of the us to curtail the ability of the Houthis to attack regionally, even if the group were still able to launch missiles further afield.
But any effort to take HEDEIDAH would quietly require a FIERCE CAMPAIGN, and thus far, no force-including the us-appears to be Willing to fully back anti-like militarily.
That is problems for the anti-wooded forces and potentially a non-starter, considering the yemeni government’s inability to defeat the wooden even when it had heavy military support from the saudi-Led coalition earlier in the war.
“The Houthis will throw all their weight behind defending Hdeidah,” Porter said. “Their port access is critical to their survival.”
She added that the Houthis were likely in a better military position to defend Hdeidah than any group attempting to advance on it.
“Honestly, I think the Republic of Yemen Government and the Presidential Leadership Council are not very invested in Shifting the status quo,” Porter said.
“If there was a viable opportunity to take Hdeidah port, then they would seize on that, but I don’t think they’ll have the support they need.”
