Why India is reaching out to the Taliban now

India’s recent diplomatic ties to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan indicate a major shift in their perception of the political reality in the region.

This comes three years after India faced a major diplomatic crisis Kabul fell to the Taliban.

Twenty years of investment in Afghanistan’s democracy – through military training, educational programs and major projects such as building a parliament – were quickly ended. The collapse also provided an opportunity for regional rivals, particularly Pakistan and China, which disrupted India’s strategy and raised new security concerns.

However, last week marked a change. Indian High Commissioner Vikram Misri met Taliban foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai – the first such event since the fall of Kabul. The Taliban expressed interest in strengthening political and economic ties with India, calling it a “major regional and economic power”.

The talks are expected to focus on expanding trade and use of Iran’s Chabahar port, which India has been developing to bypass Pakistan’s Karachi and Gwadar ports.

How important is this meeting? Delhi has now given the Taliban leadership the international recognition it has sought since its return to power, Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, an American think tank, told me.

“The fact that this support is coming from India – a country that has never been friendly with the Taliban, makes this even more important, and a diplomatic victory for the Taliban,” he says.

Since the return of the Taliban to Afghanistan, countries have adopted different governance strategies, aligning negotiations with human rights and security concerns. China, for example, has gone a long way: it has taken immediate action against the Taliban, focused on security and economic issues, and has even taken action. ambassador in the country.

No country has recognized the Taliban government, but more than 40 countries have diplomatic relations with each other.

This is why experts like Jayant Prasad, former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, are very wary of India’s expansionism.

For the past three years, he says, India has been communicating with the Taliban through its foreign ministry. India closed its embassy in Afghanistan during the civil war in the 1990s and reopened it in 2002 after the war ended. “We didn’t want this ending to happen [again]so we wanted to do it. Just to develop a relationship,” he says.

India has said “in history and civilization“With Afghanistan, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar told parliament in 2023. India has invested more than $3bn (£2.46bn) in more than 500 projects in Afghanistan, including roads, power lines, dams, hospitals and clinics. It provided thousands of scholarships to students and building a new parliament building.

This reflects the reality of the world. “Irrespective of the regime in Kabul – monarchy, communist, or Islamist – there has been a natural warmth between Delhi and Kabul,” the Indian Express newspaper. he realized.

Mr. Kugelman echoes the same sentiment. “India has an important legacy as a donor of development aid and assistance to Afghanistan, which has translated into an appeal to the Afghan people that Delhi wants not to lose,” he says.

Interestingly, relations with Delhi seem to be on the rise amid tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan says the militant group the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) operates in sanctuaries in Afghanistan.

Last July, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif told the BBC that Pakistan would do so continue to attack Afghanistan as part of the fight against terrorism. Days before talks between India and the Taliban began, Pakistani airstrikes killed dozens of people in eastern Afghanistan, according to the Afghan government. The Taliban government has condemned the protests as a violation of its rights.

This marks a sharp decline in relations since the fall of Kabul in 2021, when Pakistan’s intelligence chief was among the first foreign visitors to meet the Taliban government. At the time, many saw the fall of Kabul as a way to return to India.

“Although Pakistan is not the only one responsible for India’s expansion of the Taliban, it is true that Delhi wins in its evergreen competition with Pakistan by approaching Pakistan’s rich economy which has already changed. patron,” says Mr Kugelman.

There are other factors that cause the spread. India wants to strengthen connectivity and reach out to Central Asia, which cannot be reached directly by land due to Pakistan’s denial of freedom of transit. Experts say Afghanistan is important for this purpose. One option is to cooperate with Iran on the development of the Chabahar port to improve access to Central Asia through Afghanistan.

“It’s easy for Delhi to focus on the Afghan side of the plan by having close ties with the Taliban leadership, which is behind India’s plans because it can help improve Afghanistan’s trade and communications,” Kugelman said.

Obviously, India’s recent expansion helps to advance its interests in Afghanistan under the leadership of the Taliban: to avoid terrorist threats in India, to increase communication with Iran and Central Asia, to maintain public interest through the use of aid, and to deal with Pakistan in conflict.

What about the downside?

“The biggest threat to strengthen relations with the Taliban is the Taliban themselves. We are talking about a violent and violent person who has close ties with countries – including Pakistan – terrorist groups that have done little to reform themselves from what they were in the 1990s,” says Mr. Kugelman. .

“India can hope that if it keeps the Taliban at bay, so to speak, the Taliban will not harm India or its interests. And that may be true. But at the end of the day, can you really trust an actor like the Taliban?

Mr. Prasad feels that there is nothing wrong with what India is doing with Afghanistan, although he is concerned about the Taliban’s treatment of women. “The Taliban are in control. Allowing the Taliban to drink their own water will not help the people of Afghanistan. Further negotiations with other countries may make the government change its behavior.”

“Remember, the Taliban want recognition,” Prasad said. “They know that this will happen after the internal changes.” Such as restoring women to public life and restoring their right to education, employment and political participation.