Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Unlock the free White House Watch newsletter
Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
It is not yet clear whether the Gaza ceasefire will come into effect. But, if war is truly over, what does that mean for the world?
For Israel, the effect appears to be twofold. The country’s leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, could argue that he turned a national tragedy into a strategic victory. Hamas is devastated if not completely destroyed. Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group that has been the most heavily armed and threatening part of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” has also been weakened. Iran and Israel have exchanged live fire. But most of Iran’s missiles have failed to penetrate the defenses of Israel and its allies – and the Islamic Republic is in a weaker position than it has been in decades.
At the strategic level, Israel is emerging from this conflict as the Middle East superpower – its military deterrence fully restored and its enemies in disarray. But in contrast, Israel has suffered massive reputational damage. The Israeli offensive is estimated to have killed some 46,000 people and left Gaza in ruins. Netanyahu has been charged with war crimes at the International Criminal Court – which puts him in the same legal bracket as Vladimir Putin. Like the Russian leader, Netanyahu will now find it more difficult to travel internationally.
Israel’s popularity has declined in international opinion polls. Young people—even in the United States—are much more hostile to the country now. a pew Survey April concluded that: “Young Americans are more likely to sympathize with the Palestinian people than with the Israeli people.” A third of adults under 30 say their sympathies are all or mostly with the Palestinian people, while 14 percent favor Israel.
Israelis can hope that opinion will soften over time – especially if peace is restored. Netanyahu and his allies also believe that friends in the White House are more important than enemies on American campuses.
But Trump’s friendship may not be unconditional. There is a clear blow to the Israelis on the right that the incoming US administration has put its weight behind a cease-fire and hostage-release deal that was negotiated by the Biden White House. Expectations in Israel that Trump would give it a completely free hand to deal with the Palestinians as it sees fit have taken a knock.
Trump’s decision to push hard for peace may reflect two main factors. The first is an agreement and his willingness to take credit for the release of hostages. The second is that – although Israel enjoys strong support on the Republican right – it is not the only important country in the region. During his first presidency, Trump’s first foreign trip was to Saudi Arabia.
The incoming Trump administration will now likely push for normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia — which has also been a major goal of the Biden administration. Potentially, this offers a glimmer of hope for the Palestinians, since it is widely believed that normalizing the Saudi price will make real progress toward a Palestinian state. However, this may be a price the Israelis are unwilling to pay, meaning the Saudi-Israel deal remains a mirage.
The war in Gaza has a global, as well as regional, significance. One of the reasons the United States and its Western allies are reluctant to exert additional pressure on Israel is their belief that Iran is a common enemy. Over the past year, Western officials have spoken increasingly frequently about their belief that they are now waging a global struggle against a loose “adversarial axis” of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
By weakening Iran, Israel has also weakened that axis. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria was, in large part, a knock-on effect of Israel’s devastating attack on Bashar al-Assad’s main ally Hezbollah.
Assad’s fall from power was a significant blow to both Iran and Russia, which intervened militarily on his behalf. Russia was using Syria as a base for projecting power and now needs to back off. Paradoxically, Israel itself has reacted more cautiously to Assad’s fall than many in the West, fearing that jihadist forces would move into a power vacuum in Syria.
A final casualty of the Gaza war has been the “international rules-based order” promoted by the Biden administration. Sympathy and support for Israel following the October 7 attacks led the United States to tolerate frequent violations of international humanitarian law during Israel’s offensive in Gaza. Reassembling the rules-based order may be as difficult as the physical reconstruction of Gaza.
