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Google’s recent announcement the arrival of Willowa quantum chip that has reduced error trends of some of its predecessors, it is a milestone in the effort to bring quantum computing into the real world, and in the years ahead, it could change the way we think about risk in cryptocurrencies.
Willow’s speed is almost incomprehensible – according to Googleit is able to perform a calculation in less than five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years to solve. Ten septillion is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
But the accuracy of quantum computing has been, until now, also a major problem, with quantum like a garden hose in full bloom with no one to hold it: the water comes out quickly, but its purpose does not is not always accurate. Willow’s combination of speed and accuracy could theoretically provide hackers with the tools to unlock the algorithms that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are built on.
Qubits and bitcoin can coexist, for now
If you do not understand (not many people) what makes up quantum computing – qubits – the technology strategist of the security company DigiCert, Tim Hollebeek, has a simplified way of thinking about the breakthrough. It says imagine a maze and how a classic computer tries to find its way through the maze from start to finish. Try one potential route at a time. “A quantum computer could try each path at the same time, resulting in a much faster solution,” Hollebeek said.
While Willow may not be ready for real-world applications however, Willow’s speed and accuracy will help pave the way for larger-scale quantum computers.
“Part of the problem with qubits is that they are unstable and produce errors. This chip has significant error correction capabilities, which mitigate some of the qubit problems,” said Hollebeek.
That means chips that improve on Willow’s breakthrough could help hackers target encryption — but at least for now, the concern is only theoretical.
“Quantum computers can theoretically solve this much faster and pose a threat to today’s cryptographic algorithms, if a quantum computer with enough qubits could be developed,” Hollebeek said. But he added that the real-world reason to breathe easier today if you’re crypto is simple. “None exist today and they’re not expected for at least another 5, 10, 15 years,” he said, with the faster five-year timeline dependent on an unforeseen technological breakthrough.
A decade-long lead for crypto
A Google spokesperson told CNBC that Willow and crypto can coexist. “The Willow chip is incapable of breaking modern encryption,” he said, adding that it is also Google’s view that quantum technology with this capability is still years away.
In fact, according to Park Feierbach, an expert in decentralized financial technology who is CEO of Radiant Commons, although Willow can drastically increase the speed at which crypto could be broken, it would still take several times the age of the universe. for the quantum. chip to do. According to NASA, the universe is 13.7 billion years old.
“There is almost no reason to deploy Willow on this technology in a way that could make tractable progress. It simply still takes too long,” said Feierbach.
“He estimates that we are at least 10 years away from breaking RSA, and that about 4 million physical qubits will be required to do this,” said the Google spokesperson. RSA is an encryption system used in cryptocurrencies.
For reference, Google processors are now on the scale of about 100 physical qubits.
“Quantum-safe” algorithms.
The Google spokesperson stressed that the timeline for quantum encounters has been widely shared and Willow has not changed it.
“Google is on track with our planned roadmap,” he said. “The security community has long been aware of the timeline designed to break asymmetric cryptography, and has been working on defining standards and collaboratively implementing new algorithms that will withstand attacks from classical and quantum computers,” the spokesman added.
Indeed, Hollebeek says that the crypto industry is working on “quantum-safe” crypto.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has released several quantum-safe algorithms that are resistant to attacks from future quantum computers, Hollebeek said, and NIST has a timeline for governments and industry to implement these algorithms. to ensure the security of the nation. and trade secrets.
“Google and other industry leaders have supported standardization and experimented with algorithms in their draft form,” the Google spokesperson said.
Despite the effectiveness of quantum is to unlock algorithms (traditional crypto equations based on factoring huge prime numbers), it is not infallible, and this is where the promise lies in quantum-safe crypto.
“They’re really, really good at some things, but not at everything,” Hollebeek said, noting that breaking conventional asymmetric encryption is just one of the things they’re really good at. “Fortunately, there are other hard math problems that are bad, and asymmetric cryptography can be upgraded to use those hard math problems instead of factoring,” he said.
Running Taqi, assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said existing cryptos will have to evolve to accommodate qubits. “As the potential of quantum computing to break existing cryptography becomes more of a concern, new crypto-currencies specifically designed to be quantum-safe may be developed. These new quantum cryptos incorporate PQC, cryptographic algorithms that are resistant to power computational quantum computing,” said Raza.
Jeremy Allaire, co-founder, president and CEO of digital currency company Circle, told CNBC in an interview last week that the risk is real, but his vision of the future remains focused on the opportunities that will evolve. “The bottom line is quantum crypto means you can both unlock things more easily, things that had bad old locks, but you can also create better locks,” Allaire said. “So quantum crypto — this quantum is actually going to be a big turbocharger to crypto computing, crypto applications, and crypto money.”
Raza thinks that, ultimately, the most far-reaching changes made by quantum computing will happen beyond crypto. The developments will make devices and software faster, revolutionize AI, and improve data security with ultra-secure encryption methods. In everyday life, there will be advances in computing, health care, energy and security, Raza said, and as a result, it is not the crypto industry that we should think about isolation while these changes are still developing. “They will probably transform industries,” he said.
