UK and EU look to 2025 as year of reset but with little room for trade-offs

In early 2025, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was invited to a meeting of EU leaders. It is the first such call in the UK since the bitter days of Brexit negotiations.

The focus of the February meeting is on security cooperation and future security. Background: global instability from a European perspective.

Wars are escalating in the Middle East and Europe – where Russia was supported in its invasion of Ukraine by Iran, North Korea and China.

In addition to the ongoing uncertainty in the country, Donald Trump is ready to re-enter the White House.

He is threatening the Western alliance with his promise to cut foreign investment – a major concern of the EU and the UK – and that he may withdraw from Nato, the transatlantic security alliance the Europeans have relied on for security, since it was founded after the Second World War. .

These threats to security and trade finance have helped to remind the EU and the UK of their shared values ​​in unexpected times.

The EU felt weakened by Brexit in 2016. It meant losing a large economy and its only military power apart from France.

As for the post-Brexit UK, which now has no EU membership rules, it is also the world’s smallest superpower.

And, closer to home, the Labor government recognized that Europe is essential to delivering on a number of important promises to the people of the UK.

“Economy, security, immigration… there is a European dimension to all of this, which makes the EU’s cooperation more important in all government affairs. The things that will make the government work better are related to Europe,” says Mark Leonard, European director. Council on Foreign Relations.

Labor has repeatedly promised to “restore” EU-UK relations.

There has been a lot of talk about the shuttle and signs since it won the summer elections.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy attended a meeting of EU Foreign Ministers, Chancellor Rachel Reeves spoke at a meeting of EU Finance Ministers, and the Prime Minister went to Brussels to sit down with the Chief Commission of the EU Ursula von der Leyen.

But what does this “renewal” mean? What can we expect in 2025?

Would the UK government allow freedom of movement in exchange for economic benefits from EU trade?

The EU-UK summit is planned for the spring, and a number of political experts and senior diplomats from EU member states and the UK have spoken to me anonymously ahead of the talks.

I kept hearing about the “big favor” in the EU from the new Labor government and the “reform” over and over again.

At the same time, there is a clear sense of Brussels’ skepticism that the Labor government would do well to comply, if it wants to see meaningful results.

“After the head there is. The desire is there in Europe for a closer relationship with the UK,” the EU figure told me.

“What is not clear is what London is interested in – and what they want to do to get there. This is very important and it does not seem to be over in London.”

The safety and security I have mentioned is the proverbial “low hanging fruit” in terms of EU-UK reunification.

It is easy to build on what is already happening: cooperation on the Russian case for example, and discussions – already taking place within Nato – on military and security issues and how to better protect Europe against cyber threats and attacks on major installations. such as energy in the North Sea.

It is considered a successful partnership.

And there is no proposal to make the security agreement legally binding.

The Labor government does not have to worry now to be seen – by the political opposition or those in the UK who voted to leave – trying to “reverse Brexit”. And he is alert for a possible crime.

But Labor also made promises on trade and the economy: to “make Brexit work” and to “tear down” the trade barriers that Brexit has put in place. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that Brexit will cost the UK economy 4% of GDP over time.

Labor wants to avoid this, but it’s not as straightforward as it sounds.

EU figures say they have been undermined by the UK government announcing “ambitious” reforms while insisting that post-Brexit red lines will be restrictive.

A recent paper outlining the EU’s ambitions said there were “minimal economic benefits” for the UK to rejoin the EU’s customs union or single market or to allow immigration.

Some in the EU are skeptical that the UK government believes it can get a quid pro quo on defense deals. What they say will not happen.

“The UK is wrong if it thinks it can use the defense deal as a way to get sweet deals with us on trade,” the EU ambassador told me.

“For us, it’s like being in a strange war. It’s the devil on one shoulder of the EU and the angel on the other. In terms of morality, there’s more that unites us than divides us and the UK.

“The EU wants to do something to bring the UK closer, but on the other hand, we cannot eliminate the technical minutiae that are the basis of the EU. We cannot make special agreements, even if it hinders the relationship. with the UK.”

To see significant changes in economic relations, both sides must cooperate.

In Brussels, there is no desire to tear up the TCA – the trade agreement that already exists between the EU and the UK. But you recognize the openness of the EU to start negotiations on different economic sectors at the same time.

“We can walk and chew gum at the same time,” insisted one EU diplomat.

There is also an acknowledgment on the part of the UK that regional agreements can be compatible with EU law in those regions.

The key to any compromise Labor can make with the EU going forward is: Can they sell the result at home as a victory for the British people?

The EU will push hard for long-term fishing rights in UK waters.

It also proposes a Youth Mobility Scheme, allowing 18-30-year-olds to work and/or study in the UK or EU for three years, paying university fees if they choose to study.

The UK government insists there will be no return to freedom of movement with the EU.

Migration is a hot button issue. But it is clear that Labor has not fully resolved the youth system. They just say they have no “ideas” to go.

In terms of youth mobility, the assumption is that more EU youth are able to take advantage of mobility opportunities than UK nationals due to language barriers.

But the UK government could use more flexibility from the regulatory framework. public administration and / or fisheries cooperation as an opportunity to discuss important issues in the UK, such as the agreement of professional qualifications, which supports cross-border business, or the movement of UK artists and entertainers to travel to the EU.

Both were listed in Labour’s election manifesto as priorities for the party to enter government.

Labor also wants to move the livestock trade agreement with the EU, reducing barriers to trade in food and agriculture. This would require aligning the UK with EU animal and plant legislation.

The EU and the UK are both interested in better cooperation and collaboration on energy and climate.

Sir Keir said this was important.

Linking carbon emissions trading systems, as the EU does with several other countries, would mean the UK avoids the consequences of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) – a cost that UK businesses fear.

And removing post-Brexit barriers to the energy market could deliver €44bn (£36bn) in savings to EU and UK consumers by 2040 and reduce the cost of buying North Sea wind by 16%, according to business consultants Baringa.

The North Sea region consists of the UK plus EU member states Belgium, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands and Single Market member Norway. It is one of the areas most prone to hurricanes in the world.

On illegal immigration, the EU says it is open to closer cooperation with the UK. It wants the UK to crack down heavily on people working illegally in the country.

France complains that the ease it says migrants can stay and live is a priority in the UK for migrants.

The EU has argued that the UK could send migrants, arriving illegally aboard small boats, back to EU countries they have left.

Whatever happens in the EU-UK relationship in 2025 and beyond, it has to happen slowly because of political concerns and because negotiations have a tendency to get stuck in details.

In contrast, a recent survey by YouGov and Datapraxis at the European Council of Foreign Relations shows that voters in the EU and the UK are much more likely than leaders in Brussels and London to jump on past political agendas to strengthen relations.

The survey found that almost half of UK respondents believe that greater engagement with the EU is the best way to boost the UK economy (50%), strengthen its security (53%) and better manage immigration (58%).

When asked with whom the UK government should establish relations, 50% chose Europe and only 17% the US.

A whopping 68% of British respondents see value in reintroducing freedom of movement across multiple routes to gain access to the European single market.

The desire for unity, and the willingness to leave behind the red lines of the past, is repeated in Europe.

Majorities of voters in Poland (54%) and Germany (53%) – as well as opinions in Spain (43%), Italy (42%) and France (41%) – believe that the EU should give the UK special privileges in some areas European single market to protect close security relations.

Political threats and uncertainty seem to be changing public opinion significantly. Will the UK and EU political parties decide to continue?