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Trump’s economic and political threat to Mexico


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Mexico will learn his fate just after April Full Day. Donald Trump called April 2 to “Redemption Day”. For Mexicans, Trump will discover the amount of economic loss planning in their country at the moment.

Most parts of the global economy will probably be damaged by America tariffs on April 2. However, this part is especially higher for Mexico, which sends 5 percent of its exports to the United States. Trump has already imposed 25 percent tariffs on both Canada and Mexico. About half of these new responsibilities were stuck quickly. However, they can all be re -made next week.

Mexico’s fate is worth watching for two main reasons. First, the unusual dependence on the economy over export to the United States means Mexico’s social and political stability is at risk. Mexican economists believe that Trump’s tariff in the worst situation could cause frustration in their country.

The second reason is that Mexico provides a test case for how to deal with Trump. Has returned to Canada Ours Mexico President Klodia Shainboum has played great with strict talk and mutual tariffs. He emphasizes his respect for Trump and refrains from imposing revengeful tariffs. Shainboum has agreed to send more than 10,000 troops to protect the US-Mexican border and deport 29 high-profile drug cartel leaders to the United States.

Shainboum has been rewarded with Trump’s praise, who called her a “great woman”. He is enjoying the high opinion survey rating of the sky at home. Internationally, he has been selected as an example of how to treat Trump America, the New York Times praised its realism and the economist to salute his “diplomatic nos”.

The reality is more complicated. As the top commercial economist Luis de la call Indicated Canada to me in Mexico City last week and Mexico The Trump administration has yet been very well behaved. Critics of Shainboum also say he is damaging the Mexican economy and future investment, which is moving forward with plans to dismiss all the judges of the country and replace them with elected officers.

As the local economy already fought, Shainboum’s Trump needed to spend his break. However, unfortunately Trump’s allegations for Mexico surpassed trade.

Last month the White House emphasized: “Mexican drug trafficked companies have an unbearable alliance with the Mexico government.” Trump is the Joshua Travio of the first policy Institute of America Comment With approval that this statement is a “pronunciation of earthquake that heralds a new era of conflict between the two nations”.

Republican circles have a serious debate over whether the military should be used to hit the drug cartels in Mexico, Mexico. This month, another Think-Tank, the dominant dominant in the Trump World, warned the defense priorities: “Bomb Mexico” is becoming increasingly mainstream as an alternative to border protection. This would be a serious mistake. ” Some influential Mexicans will say silently that if the Trump administration pressures their own government to take more aggressive measures against drug gangs – perhaps American significant support – perhaps it may not be such a bad thing.

The damage that the cartels are doing in the Mexican society is highlighted by the horror of one “Eliminate Shibir” The abductors in the countryside seem to have been killed in an organized crime gang. More than 100,000 people were missing in Mexico, many thought to be a victim of cartel.

But one -sided American military military strikes against cartels – when they can draw cheers from Trump’s bases – put the Mexican government into an impossible position. They will take the United States to a more open conflict without attacking the main causes of the problem, which includes gun flow from the United States to Mexico and America’s own demand for drugs.

Trump has made Mexico more difficult to create a rational response by suggesting drugs, illegal immigration and at the same time to deal with trade. So Shainboum is trying to make the US president humor and flatter, hoping that he is confused or his advisers have argued him.

The reality is that the tariffs will undermine the most advanced parts of Mexico’s economy and make the country poor. This downward spiral can increase nationalism and anti -democratic people, while the organized crime enhances the power of crime and drives Mexican more to try to enter the United States.

The biggest hope of Mexico is that America itself will refrain from pain shared because of a tariff war. Americans depend on cheap, reliable supplies from Mexico for everything from fruits and vegetables to portions and treatment equipment. High inflation in the United States will be felt rapidly, when America’s committed re-industry will come long, if it ever happens.

Poor and destabilizing the southern and largest trading partner in the United States is a bad idea – the United States and Mexico itself. However, unfortunately, it is not a guarantee that it doesn’t happen.

gideon.rachman@ft.com



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