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Donald Trump was typically blunt when he first warned in December that “all hell would break loose” in the Middle East if Israeli hostages held in Gaza were not released before his inauguration.
The US president-elect’s hawkish tone had the desired effect, adding momentum to long stalled talks and on Wednesday Israel and Hamas agreed to a cease-fire deal ending a devastating 15-month war in Gaza and freeing 98 remaining prisoners. the strip
With Steve Wittkoff, Trump’s New York real estate pal as the Middle East emissary, he played a central role in shuttling between Qatar — which hosted the talks — and Israel, as mediators finally secured the deal that had long eluded the Biden administration.
This should mean that Gazans, who have endured immeasurable suffering through the deadliest war in their history, will finally get some respite from Israeli bombs and bullets and begin to think tentatively about rebuilding.
Relatives of the remaining Israeli hostages held since the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas that killed 1,200, Israeli officials will begin to hope that their nightmare is over. The prisoners, who have suffered a hellish existence trapped in Hamas’ tunnel network, will be freed if the deal holds.
The main question is whether it can be tolerated. Will it be a temporary pause, or lead to the permanent ceasefire that mediators, the Palestinians and the wider region so desperately want?
Trump has already claimed victory to help secure a deal where President Joe Biden has failed. But the durability of the truce brokered by the United States, Qatar and Egypt may depend on Israel’s willingness to continue using political muscle, including ensuring that the far-right government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees the deal through.
Trump’s incoming administration is filled with staunch pro-Israel figures, and in his first term he showed little sympathy or patience for the Palestinians as he implemented a series of pro-Israel measures that defied decades of US policy. But the hope is that Trump will now take ownership of the deal and ensure its success.
However, all sides will be at risk of spoilers, including Hamas, whose military capabilities have been severely weakened, but not eliminated.
The cease-fire agreement is based on a three-phase proposal that Biden first endorsed in May. It will begin with an initial 42-day ceasefire, during which 33 hostages – including women, the elderly and wounded – will be released in exchange for an agreed number of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli troops are supposed to be redeployed away from urban centers and allowed to aid in the famine- and disease-stricken Strip.
More challenging is the second phase, which aims for a permanent ceasefire, the release of remaining hostages – including Israeli soldiers – and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops.
At this stage, fine details which are still to be discussed, Netanyahu’s promises will be fully tested.
He has repeatedly denied agreeing to permanently end the war or withdraw his forces from Gaza. Meanwhile, Hamas has demanded that high-profile prisoners, with life sentences for murder and terrorism, be released in exchange for the soldiers they held hostage – a bitter pill to swallow for the Israelis.
Netanyahu has already faced resistance from right-wing allies and ministers Itamar Ben-Gavir and Bezalel Smotrich. Smotrich described the agreement as a “surrender”; Ben-Gavir this week called on the former to join forces with him to resign from the government.
While the veteran prime minister’s ruling coalition was bolstered by the addition of another right-wing party in September, the departures of Ben-Gavir and Smotrich would still leave him with a minority government. That could force Netanyahu into an early election, bringing political reckoning to the ballot box that he had sought to avoid.
There is still no clarity on who will run the strip. Neither Israel, the United States nor Arab states want Hamas – which has ruled Gaza since 2007 – to regain control, but Netanyahu has not presented a viable plan for the “aftermath” of the war. He rejected US and Arab pressure to work with the Palestinian Authority, which controls a limited portion of the occupied West Bank.
He railed against any move toward a Palestinian state, which experts say is the only long-term solution.
The Biden administration has been talking with Arab partners for months about creating an international security force that would work with an interim PA-backed, Palestinian administration — including Gaza — to deal with civilian issues.
But the U.S. won’t put boots on the ground, and it’s unclear who else — if anyone will — risks being sucked into an insurgency and seen as doing Israel’s bidding. It is unclear whether Trump will propose his own plan, or whether he has given any thought to the future of Gaza beyond his inauguration day.
Yet the needs of Gazans could not be more urgent. According to Palestinian officials, more than 46,000 people have been killed in the Israeli offensive, including both civilians and combatants. Entire families are wiped out, and a generation of children are orphaned and scarred for life.
Schools, hospitals, homes, offices and businesses were destroyed. Most of Gaza’s 2.3 million population have been forced from their homes. Many people do not know what they will get when they come back.
Trump will likely focus on brokering a grand bargain that leads Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel. But Riyadh insists that this can only happen if Israel takes irreversible steps towards a Palestinian state.
With Netanyahu and his far-right allies in power, Israel would likely prefer to annex the West Bank or escalate hostilities with Iran rather than make concessions to the Palestinians.
It took almost a year of negotiations to stop the war. But compared to the Herculean task of rebuilding Gaza, not to mention the long-elusive goal of a lasting peace in the region, this may prove to be the easy part.
