There are no shortcuts to manage the Russia challenge

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Author Berlin’s Carnegie Russia is the director of the Eurasia Center

When Vladimir Putin ordered the entire scale aggression of Ukraine three years ago, it was a waterlogging moment like 9/11. Russia’s invasion of his neighbor, although it was involved in the country’s fragile journey in the dark, it was not inevitable. Once it happened, but the war of war changed the course of history. The perfect storm of challenges in the face of Western leaders is the most consequences of the unprecedented and mischievous Russia in a living memory.

Now, in the fourth year, the war has destroyed Ukraine, the main victim of unnecessary horror published by the Kremlin. Russia is a distant second, yet the war is a strategic disaster for it, especially if the country is measured against all peaceful alternative trajectory. The tragic irony is that Putin has created a long -term security challenge for Russia by attacking Ukraine that has not been before. Three years ago, it was rarely assumed that Western missiles would be dismissed with almost exemption in military goals within Russia, that a non-nuclear country would occupy a portion of the Russian territories, that would join Finland and Sweden Nato, and with Moscow’s multi-Germany-Germany Valuable special relationships will be lost. Yet everything has come. What is more, Putin has turned into an aggressive nation decorated with Ukrainians and is looking for a way to dispose of scores for the atrocities committed by those who say “brother”.

Russia has actually suffered “strategic defeat”, while the then US Secretary of Secretary Anthony Blinken said that in March 2022, the aggressive end against Kiev, was abusive on Russia. However, the faster forward in 2025, and the image is much worse than the victorious expectation that many people in the West and the Ukrainians preached to the Ukrainians. Russia has taken this push and is flying against the Ukrainian military, despite the flying casualties and destroying equipment. Furthermore, Kremlin has begun military restructuring. By 2030, its battle machine can be bigger and better.

In the face of the tsunami of Western sanctions, the Russian economy was expected to be in disguise long ago. However, opposite the USSR, it goes on in the market policies and managed technocrats. The country is also an important exporter of oils and other products that are difficult to completely cut off without disrupting global markets. This, as well as self-interest support from China and other non-western countries, gradually explains both Russia’s elasticity as well as Russia’s elasticity. Finally, the Russian society – before the war – has been encouraged by atoms – and likewise nuclear elite rallies around Putin.

Then, in the most surprising plot twist, Putin Donald became lucky with Trump’s US election, who wanted to end the war and reduce American involvement. The war has been in a negative trajectory for some time – at least after the resistance of the change in 2023 in Ukraine. However, Trump’s election makes the problem worse. Kremlin hopes that since he is looking for a quick agreement, it can also be a dirty deal that will only stop hostility but leaves Ukraine without a credible security guarantee and through the polarization of the president’s election – set it on the path to persuade.

Whatever the unprecedented result of Trump’s diplomatic equestrian allegations, one thing is clear: Even though Ukraine’s guns are muted, Trump lifts US sanctions against Russia, but the current government of Kremlin will see the West as a mortal enemy. Putin’s desire, vengeance, and desire to create a sign in the history of Russia, will request Moscow to prepare for the next war when they continue to scare Moscow against Europe with a clear lack of balance in the Kremlin.

Three years ago, the western capital believed that Kyiv would fall within a few days. The combination of Ukrainian courage and skill, the Russian OP Dutta and Western support avoided that scene. Ukraine is still standing, Europe has painfully reduced its dependence on Russian raw materials and has been invested in deterrence. However, by other metrics, the situation for Europeans is worse than the early 2022. The progress of promoting the Defense Industry Base remains. The post-Covid recovery was restored in many countries through the influence of war, which cost strict sales for voters. Most importantly, instead of the Traditional Tamental role of European Protection Bedauc, the United States itself is the source of risk under Trump. After all, the unity is even more broken in the EU and the larger countries. Even if appropriate street maps like the Dragi Report are made to solve these problems, will they have a political desire to follow them?

The problem that the Western can solve and should be solved is his deliberate thoughts about shortcuts to overcome Putin and conduct the challenge of Russia. The unrealistic expectations of an entire victory that contained in a wonderful lack of obvious eye views became part of all problems. The threats that will be published from Russia in the coming decades and how to prepare for how to come next time come for a quiet, perfect-mind conversation.