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The G7 is “the steering committee of the free world,” according to Jake Sullivan, national security adviser to President Joe Biden. If so, the free world has a problem. The majority of G7 governments are now so burdened by domestic political problems that they are unable to govern their own countries – let alone the free world.
Consider the political situation in France, Germany, Canada, Japan and South Korea (the latter is not officially a member of the G7, but regularly attends the summit). In France, the government recently collapsed after failing to pass a budget. A The new prime minister are in place but will face the same problem. There is much speculation that Emmanuel Macron will step down from the presidency before his term ends in 2027.
Germany heads to the polls after the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s “traffic-light” coalition Japan’s recent election saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority for the first time since 2009 – with another poll likely next year. In CanadaJustin Trudeau’s nearly decade in power is coming to an inglorious end The prime minister is under intense pressure to resign due to the party’s fallout in the elections.
D The piece of resistance Democracy is in decline South KoreaWhere President Yoon Suk Yeol’s political position became so desperate that he imposed martial law. Popular protests quickly forced him to back down and led to his impeachment.
Outside the US, the only two G7 countries that can claim to have a stable government are the UK and Italy. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer won a huge majority in this summer’s election. But since then his poll ratings have declined rapidly. In fact, Starmer is more so now unpopular After serving five months longer than any UK prime minister in four decades. Only Italy’s Giorgia Meloni can make a reasonable claim to be the one to see favorably by its voters and markets.
So what’s wrong with the G7? As always, local context matters. In Japan, corruption scandals have weakened the LDP. Both Macron and Trudeau are leaders who have lost their luster after years in office.
But there also seem to be two major overarching factors that are making it very difficult for nearly all G7 democracies to maintain stable governments. The first is the collapse of the political center and the rise of populist parties. The second is A financial strain Driven by sluggish growth, an aging society, pandemics, the 2008 financial crisis and demands for increased defense spending.
Populism and financial problems are feeding each other and making it harder and harder to govern. After this, the French government was overthrown Tried to cut spending and raise taxes To tackle the budget deficit of 6 percent of GDP. Since a large part of the French parliament is in the hands of either the far left or the far right, political compromise is extremely difficult.
Starmer’s large majority in Britain enabled his government to do what the French could not — raise taxes, Efforts to balance the books. But tax increases contributed to Labour’s decline in popularity. The difficulty of finding money in hard times also played an important role in the political crisis in Canada and Japan.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House could contribute to an atmosphere of political instability across the G7. Instead of trying to help his Democratic allies govern, Trump and his current favorite, Elon MuskThe pleasure seems to pile on the pain. Maga Republicans especially love to bait center-left leaders like Trudeau, Scholz and Starmer.
Trump went out of his way to insult Trudeau by referring to Canada, America’s 51st state, and its prime minister as its “governor.” Musk made headlines across Europe Posted on X: “Only AFDE can save Germany.” He also held a well-publicised meeting with Britain’s reform leader Nigel Farage – who made it clear he was hoping for Musk’s financial backing.
Trump Republicans no longer consider Europe’s traditional conservatives their sister party. Kimi Badenoch, leader of Britain’s Tories and Friedrich MarzTrump and Musk, the leaders of Germany’s Christian Democrats, can only look frustrated rather than on the radical, nationalist right. Christian Lindner, leader of Germany’s militant, pro-business Free Democrats, issued a plaintive plea to “Elon”, telling him the AfD was a “far-right extremist party”. Touchingly, he believes it will turn Musk off.
Merger’s CDU is currently well ahead of the AfD in German election polls. But far-right and populist groups across the G7 now clearly have a friend in the White House. Kasturi could help parties like AfD and Reform with campaign and possibly money. But his support can also backfire at times. Nationalist parties such as National Assembly of France Has a strong anti-American tradition and is wary of being seen as a tool of wealthy foreigners.
Trump’s intervention may not ensure that he can place ideological bedfellows around the rest of the G7. Instead he could create a situation in which the leaders of many of America’s closest allies view the US president not as a friend, but as a dangerous political enemy.
