The reshaping of the Middle East

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Roula Khalaf, editor of the FT, picks her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

Hours after rejecting a US-led proposal for a 21-day ceasefire with Hezbollah in September, Benjamin Netanyahu boasted that he was changing the balance of power in the region for years to come. Israel’s prime minister had just ordered the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, signaling that Israel is turning its attention away from the Gaza Strip to intensify its offensive against the militants in Lebanon. As the year draws to a close, the dynamics in the Middle East have undoubtedly shifted in Israel’s favor.

The Israeli military’s relentless crackdown on Hezbollah forced it into a cease-fire agreement that essentially gave Israel the right to continue attacking Lebanon. Iran appears to be at its most vulnerable in years. The “axis of resistance” of Iran-backed militants, including Hezbollah and Hamas, looks like another paper tiger. Israeli bombs destroyed much of the Islamic Republic’s air defenses in October – the biggest conventional attack on Iran in decades.

The Islamic regime suffered another devastating blow this month when Syrian rebels overthrew dictator Bashar al-Assad during the Syrian civil war. About 4,000 Iranians were forced out of the country due to the loss of an important land link to supply Iran, a key state ally in the Middle East and its most important proxy, Hezbollah. Israel may not have had a direct hand in Assad’s shocking death, but its pounding of Iranian targets in Syria and HezbollahThat helped shore up the regime, smoothing the way for the rebels in Damascus.

Since the intelligence failure of the horrific Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which took 250 hostages and killed 1,200, the extent of Israel’s military dominance over its enemies has become starkly evident. Netanyahu’s political fortunes are back in tandem. after Hamas attack, many predicted the end of his dominance in Israeli politics. However, he appears to be as entrenched as ever, with his right-wing coalition strengthened by the addition of one more party, with his poll numbers returning to pre-October 7 levels.

Yet Israel’s battlefield gains have come at a huge cost that will reverberate for years to come. No one should mourn the end of Assad’s brutal regime or the weakening of the pernicious influence of Iran and its proxies. But Israel’s military success will forever be tarnished by the untold suffering its invasion has brought to millions of people in Gaza and Lebanon.

Reports by Amnesty and Human Rights Watch detail and among Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, which Netanyahu has long taken to court, Israel faces growing accusations of committing acts of genocide in Gaza, including a case at the International Court of Justice. Not only does the horrific death toll — more than 45,000, according to Palestinian officials — fuel such accusations, but Israel’s siege of 2.3 million-strong Gaza; restrictions on aid and water; and the destruction of civilian infrastructure that rendered much of the Strip uninhabitable.

In issuing an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, the International Criminal Court said there were “reasonable grounds” to believe “he bears criminal responsibility for the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare”. . . and other inhuman acts.” Israel’s war and blockade is a stain not only on Israel, but also on the United States, which has allowed Netanyahu to operate with impunity.

After destroying Hamas’ military capabilities and neutralizing regional threats to Israel, Netanyahu has no reason not to end the conflict and agree to a deal to release the remaining hostages. But he and his far-right allies seem instead interested in seizing more territory on multiple fronts and keeping Israel in a perpetual state of conflict. Ultimately, Israel’s security can only be ensured through peace, and it has never been in a stronger position to achieve it—if only Netanyahu could see it.