The relationship recession is going global

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There is a reason birth rates are an increasingly prominent feature of discourse and policymaking today. Population aging and decline is one of the world’s most powerful forces, from which everything is shaped the economy from politics and environment.

But a weakness in the debate — and even the word “fertility” itself — implies that the goal is the same today as in the past: to find ways to encourage couples to have more children. A closer look at the data suggests a whole new challenge.

Take the United States as an example. Average number between 1960 and 1980 A woman is born half a child About four to two, even as Section of married women Couples are only modestly lower end. There were still plenty of couples in happy, stable relationships. They are just choosing to have small families.

But much of the decline in recent years has come not from decisions made by couples, but from a significant decline in the number of couples. was Marriage and Cohabitation US Rates Had it been constant over the past decade, America’s total fertility rate would be higher today than it was then.

The central demographic story of modern times is not just declining fertility rates but rising rates of loneliness: a much more fundamental change in the nature of modern society.

Relationships are not only becoming less common, but increasingly fragile. In egalitarian Finland, it is now even more so It is common for couples who move in together to split up Than a child, a sharp contrast to the historical norm.

Depicted as an increase in happy childless dinks (dual-income, no-child couples) with plenty of disposable income, social trends seem benign with declining birth rates.

But the rise of loneliness and relationship breakdown is a less rosy story, especially considering the decline in relationship formation the poorest. Of course, many people are happily single. Freedom to choose how to live one’s life and who to celebrate with (or without). But broad information Loneliness And Dating frustration Not all suggestions are correct.

The trend is global. From USA, Finland and South Korea to Türkiye, Tunisia and Thailand, Falling birth rates A relationship slump among young adults is increasingly downstream. Child Bonus Put the cart before the horse when an increasing share of people are without a partner. A similar trend may even continue in parts of sub-Saharan Africa.

Why an almost global decline, and why now? That the phenomenon is occurring almost everywhere points to broader changes across borders rather than simultaneous country-specific causes.

The proliferation of smartphones and social media has been an external shock. Geographical differences in the rise of loneliness track widely Mobile Internet use, especially among women, The calculus of weighing potential partners is changing. Compatible with this Research Social media facilitates the spread of liberal values ​​shown (especially among women only) and enhances women’s empowerment.

The decline in connectivity is deepest in highly online-Europe, East Asia and Latin America, followed by the Middle East and then Africa. Loneliness is rare in South Asia Women have access to the web more limited.

This is not to overstate the role of social media. Other cultural differences between countries and regions mediate both the spread of liberal ideals and people’s ability to act on them. Caste and honor systems encourage high marriage rates regardless of media accessAnd female education, income, and employment differ significantly across regions.

But while specific mechanisms are up for debate, its role in spreading loneliness and cratering birth rates suggests that financial incentives and other policy changes. May increase birth rateThey are working against much stronger socio-cultural forces.

Policies aimed at facilitating relationship formation may be more effective than those aimed at helping couples have children.

A world of growing loneliness Not necessarily better or worse than one full of couples and families, but it’s fundamentally different from what came before, including the main socialEconomic and political Implications We are faced with a conundrum: Is this what people really want? If not, what needs to change?

john.burn-murdoch@ft.com, @jburnmurdoch