The EU needs a new geopolitical compass

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Author is Brussels-based Think-Tank Itinera Institute’s co-chief executive and author of ‘Super Power Europe: The European Union’s Silent Revolution’

EU faces the challenge of a new world order. The official “Europe Day” of May 9 has identified – peace and unity celebrations that are quite the opposite outside the world. Europe is strategically sitting alone: ​​Russia is an enemy, China is an opposition as well as partner and Donald Trump’s threat or liability.

There are basically three main options in the block. One: Do an American geography in Europe. This means developing what is needed to project European energy, to keep a pax built in a large market with integrated technical and security capabilities, finally equipped with a refined NATO.

To get there, Europe has to make a China economically: a strong industry and technology base rebuild. Then it will not only dominate its Eurasian theater, but one opposition Russia is the time to achieve geological independence in the wide world.

The second option is to determine the position of the EU as the last base of globalization. It will follow the United States move under the administration of Joe Beden, linked to countries when protecting the strategic industry with a high fence of security.

This strategy will eventually involve China or the United States as a security backstop. However, as long as Trumpsmm means indifference or worse, the EU can consider its own “reverse kisser”: off-ramp in its trade war with Washington on condition of surrounding partnership patterns with Moscow. Europe’s position will be one of the limited trade and diplomatic normalizations instead of hostile domination.

The third option is to continue the second feedol game in the United States for the EU. In a short time, it means re-establishing the block as the first agenda strategic resource in America: US-friendly trade agreement with Trump, paying bills for Ukraine stability and restructuring and enabled US business interests in mining and twinging the US line in China.

In return, Europe will benefit from the minimum US security guarantee while the American -led technology and financial market is integrated. In the medium term, the United States becomes less separatist while maintaining a competition with China, a deep partnership can still reappear, which both of which reflect both economic reality and the mutual need for sharing burdens in the new world order.

Which of these options is currently taking on the EU? Short Answer: All of the above is at the same time. It is developing general power for defense and protection while following art policies. It continues to promote international trade with EU-China trade, including more Chinese production in Europe. It is not related to Ukraine when exploring the trade agreement with Trump, but our security courts.

It shows significant political creativity. However, Europe is not hedging its bats cleverly in the world of growing disorders. Instead, it is only stuck in a stability by being able to react to the pieces in external shocks.

If Europe cannot become active and strategic, geopolitical cross-sources will eventually share it politically and to make it marginalized. European countries face the challenge of a new world order as a matter of need, not the need for the need. Either they are successful to channel a response via the EU, or the unique reactions of the countries will slowly remove the block. Adhoc “Coalition[s] Willing ” A gentle herbinggar that could become a threat of existence.

If Europe becomes a master of its own fate again, it should be straight to set its geological compass. Russia requires significant hard-power power and autonomy in the United States, as well as adequate economic freedom from China. The second guarantees that Europe will be able to explore a translatant reset in the post-Trump United States, which is a scene that needs to deepen trade relations with China in a short time.

European countries need to be aware that the “European Project” is now a hard-power project that requires a geological footprint beyond its current boundary. We were here before. In the early 1950s, post -war Europe tried to institutionalize political and defense cooperation and failed. Then, it was America’s protection and a European economic community that enabled peace and prosperity. Today, we’re resisting for ourselves. With economic development of geo -politics, failure is not just an option.