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Put the English sparkling wine on top of the ice. For the Brexit dividend we thought we would find out in the end.
On the first days of Donald Trump’s customs war, Liver and conservative Aligned to celebrate less violence in the UK economy. They had a statement. The UK proposed 20 percent of the proposed EU was twice the UK, so there was less disadvantage because of being out of that block. The inaugural shots of the US president are more Owed for British weakness in exporting goods than Brexit; The United Kingdom still faces the same 25 percent tariffs in the vehicle. However, a broken leg is better than both. Even Labor ministers acknowledged An advantage.
Alas, this victory was a younger life than the truss premiership. The EU has now returned to equality with the UK after the 90 -day break on Wednesday’s tariff. All those who make the argument of Donald Trump’s sparkle will give up hope.
And yet Trump’s blink will not calm the argument. This brief deviation on tariffs for the UK and EU products – which can still be restored – it was the killer incident that Brexitors wanted for a long time. They further emphasized the UK’s newly independent trade policy because it wants a space deal with the United States.
Ay Limited agreement, Concentrating on technology and science sectors, and somewhat reduction in agricultural tariffs has already been given by the United Kingdom. Nevertheless, there is suspicion that Trump can be removed from its 10 percent imposition and fears that the United States will accept those existing offers and look further. The latest step is given, Sir Care Starmer Now you will seek discount on tariffs on cars and auto parts.
So yes, the Brexitors got an enthusiasm for one of their central arguments and could still do so again by expressing open resentment for Trump’s EU. What is more, there are some areas where the removal of Brussels provides potential economic benefits, especially in the proposed AI control.
However, if we ignore the lifetime of this bonus and important UK industries such as auto and pharmaceuticals are still at risk-or any possible benefit can easily be easily overcome by a wide range of ongoing trade war-this idea may be “perfected money” or passing.
This is more important for historical tihassic reasons. Ministers and officials are currently discussing a partial reset of trade settlement with the EU, a defense and protection agreement and re -signature with EU carbon markets. Brexit is too far from being an round. However, since every change in Brussels has been wildly condemned by the Brexitors, Starmar must not be clearly argued about any special argument about any trade dividend where the UK has greater economic priority distort official thinking.
Trump’s principles are turning the UK back to Europe’s orbit, even trying not to choose the sides of the Starma. All of the short-growing Britain needed to find it all that can find incremental boost. (Accidentally, it is noticeable TürkiyeWhich enjoys a tariff union with the EU, the same as the UK was given the same 10 percent tariffs from the beginning).
Even Trump’s differential tariffs will not erase the ongoing economic loss of the EU. By various studies by National Economic and Social Research InstituteThe Monitoring of the economy And Economic reform center Suggest that by 2022, business investment is 10-12.4 percent higher but for Brexit. Former Bank of England Financial Policy Committee Jonathan Hassel The lost investment was already spent $ 29 billion for the UK. Other studies are less downbeat – the power of the United Kingdom Service industry The effect has softened – but all points are in one direction.
The office continues to predict 4 percent permanent injuries for budget responsibilities UK productivity And a long -term reduction of 15 percent in export and imports. Even the LSE’s more optimistic recent report Economic performance center It has been found that 16,400 businesses have just stopped exporting to the EU after 2021.
There is also a broad problem. Today’s opportunity can be tomorrow’s weakness. The direction of Trump’s trip is that marchunilist politics and the UK are not a power player. One of the reasons for the President EU is so hostile is that he recognized a big trading block that it is more difficult to talk. Whatever the European Union policies and opinions, it is in a position to protect them so it should be chosen, as shown this week’s preparation to think about revengeful tariffs. Not in the UK.
Preparing to play the requester to play the price of priority treatment. UK does not hold the UK cards to use the word favorable Trump. It is already preparing to leave digital sales tax, which will hit large technology companies in the United States.
No one can be confident for the next four years that excess freedom is valuable for the cloud or security damage given by a large trading block membership that can be tightened by external threat. Labor ambitions are still limited by its Brexit red lines, but if it allows the best partial narrative to emphasize the best partial details to emphasize the better and to emphasize the best in its trade discussion with the EU with the EU.
We are all waiting for the next heart-breaking Trump twist. In the meantime, let’s not read for the first shots of this trade war, for the legend myth. Britain couldn’t find a Brexit crink of gold, just a short silver lining for a very large cloud.
