Should Brits brace for tax rises in the Autumn Budget?

Unlock the editor’s digest in free

FT editor Raula Khalaf selected his favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

As expected, there was no tax change in the spring statement, but any feeling of relief for our personal money should be carefully mooded. As the budget of the autumn almost arrives, I fear that the rise in the tax will return to the agenda.

Half of the UK’s economic growth forecast for the budget was a heavy injury this year. The verbal fault of Rachel Reeves could be transferred from “Black Holls” to “Global Uncertainty”, but Downgrade had a lesser relationship with Trump’s threat tariff and he had to do more with $ 24 billion dollars growing The employers contribute to national insuranceThe

Last October, the largest tax-procurement system of the budget will be effective from next month, which means the UK’s economy has not yet felt the full power of influence. This must increase both unemployment and inflation because businesses cut off jobs and raised prices for compensation, even the OBR document estimates Three -quarters of spending “Through the lower original wages” will be sent to the workers.

It has given the Chancellor’s comments about protecting the working people from the impact of higher income tax, national insurance or VAT – good luck to discuss your next pay increase.

Nevertheless, Reeve has done a good job to listen to very enthusiastic about very few quantities. The overall headroom against the financial rules is still minimal, so the threat of future tax increase remains.

Efforts to increase through planning reform, increase defense costs and relax financial control can be the right thing but no one will remove the needle too much, and the weak job market means consumers’ confidence. Already under pressureThe The average mortgage rate of OBR will be high, as more Orrows stop the lower-rate agreement, not suggesting that people will spend more, because the family’s financial financial is limited.

However, a very large number stands – for this year, the official debt pencil costs £ 105.2 billion dollars, which is higher than the combined budget of the defense, combined with the Home Office and the Ministry of Justice.

It refers to how much in the Chancellor market compassion. With the unknown influence of the global trade war – with so many domestic and global uncertainty around – it doesn’t take much to increase the cost of taking orrow and the small black numbers of OBR into a bigger red color.

So what could it mean for our personal money? Although the Chancellor was careful not to whisper about tax growth on Wednesday, if the search for growth proved to be fruitless, it is more difficult to see how he can avoid. It repeated the wise taxpayer of a few months that was seen in the budget run-up last October, as investors tried to make a second guess where the Chancellor’s ax could read.

The country has the most respected tax experts The Government has requested Be bold enough to consider the bold reforms to stop feeding and simplify the system Address the problems running for a long time A bid to increase and increase productivity. I suspect that politicians will listen.

Now, a feeling Generally published FT readers should maximize your tax allowance before the government is further reduced. I am not surprised to see that investment platforms have reported abnormally high flow this year – an event “Reeves Impact” dub – And I predicted that the new tax year in April won’t be different.

Spring Statement Documents have confirmed that the options for ISAS reforms are still considered, with the desire to properly power the balance between cash and shares “to increase the culture of retail investment in the UK. Nevertheless, a culture of fear hangs on retailers because we are waiting to see what rules change and tax increase will bring about the budget of October.

Claire Barrett is FT’s Customer Editor and Author of FT Sort your financial life Newsletter series; Claer.barrett@ft.com; Instagram and ticktok @Clereb