Return of the two Europes

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“Europe must take responsibility for its own defense,” the new geopolitical clitch said. “Europe” is made up of countries whose interests are irrelevantly different depending on their distance from Russia. Donald Trump’s turn in Moscow is restoring the geography of the cool war. We are seeing the return of “Eastern Europe” and “Western Europe”.

European geography changes periodically. Exiled Czech writer Milan Kundera’s 1983 essay “The Kidnapped West”. At that time, the Soviet satellite Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia were referred to as “Eastern Europe”. In fact, Kandera said that they were part of the West until the Red Army was abducted “in” Central Europe ” – 145.

“What is Central Europe?” Asked Kundar. “An uncertain region of small countries between Russia and Germany.” And what was a “small race”? “Whose very existence can be questioned at any moment; A small nation can disappear, and know it. ”

Small countries in Central Europe joined “Eastern Europe” in 1945. After 1989, when they joined “Europe” after the fall of communism. In 1999, Hungary, Poland and Czech Republic entered the Republic NATO And got a geographical upgrade: they joined the Translatantic West, which extend from San Francisco to Warsa.

Last week, Trump seems to have dissolved the West. “It starts to look at the end of NATO,” says Steven Everts, who operates the European Union Institute for Security Studies. Attacking 5 Member States in NATO paragraph is committed to protect any member. The maximum possible position of the attack is Baltics. Asked about a journalist about NATO’s eastern edge, Trump said, “I am very committed PolandThe “Asked Next about Baltics, he is on behalf of a promise.

Where is Poland et al Where is located now? They are probably not in a single military entity called “Europe”. After all, none of the Western Europeans or Americans never died for Eastern Europeans – not for the Danzig in the 5th, for Budapest in 7, or Prague in 76. Western Europeans lived well and the Soviets ruled Eastern Europe and if Putin did, they could have lived well. This means that the concept of “European defense” is like an insurance project for people living in the hurricane zone, where people do not live in the region that people will pay the maximum.

A senior French officer told me that Putin’s aggression was miserable, but in the end, France was not a problem. “We have our atomic umbrella,” he pulled. Putin could theoretically invade France or Britain, but it was rarely given the historic Tihasic limit of its influence in its vulnerable army and “nearest to Russia” in Russia. Southern Europe is more secure. On Sunday, the previous Sunday of Russia’s invasion in 2022, I sat in a lake in Madrid in the midst of a lunch and realized: Russia is not a problem in Spain.

Germany is less protected. Putin probably couldn’t attack it, but since Germany is not a neo, he can try nuclear blackmail. German and other Europeans are now interrogating France’s nuclear umbrella. It will express their blackmail friendly, as France will expel a lot in exchange. However, France will certainly not extend his umbrella to the Baltic – countries will probably need it, but whose proposal is very low. France will not risk a nuclear war with Russia for Lithuania.

Sudden Eastern Europe is re -emerging, Finland and Sweden are leaning towards the old Soviet block. These countries are making their military forces fast. Even a number of GDPs on defense do not consider the risk of Russian aggression.

A study by Catherine D Vris and Stefani Hoffman at the University of Bokney University at the European University Institute found that the nearest countries are near Moscow, the more they support the statement, “EU defense expenses should be increased.”

I suspect that Europeans will find money for Ukraine’s funds. We can surpass Putin. However, its edge is willing to shed Russian blood. Good associations value the lives of their citizens but it is a barrier to war. The cost of dying in Europe today is very high, where 20 -year -old children can expect a 5 -year -old to survive. If European troops are ever sent to Vilnius, the Potinist far-flung far-right parties will immediately claim “peace” (money surrender).

I have kept it to a major Eastern European politician that Western European states take very little care about the war in Eastern Europe. He replied, “We know. That is why some of our countries are asking, ‘Why should we not attack Russia now, instead of waiting for us to attack?’ “Small countries that may disappear are at risk of everything.

Email at Simon simmon.kuper@ft.com

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