Moldova faces energy crisis as flow of Russian gas ends

On New Year’s Day, Russian gas stopped flowing to Ukraine.

Kyiv says it’s a “historic” day because its refusal to extend a transit agreement with Russia’s Gazprom has halted payments to support a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

But in neighboring Moldova, the migration threatens to cause problems.

In Transnistria, the breakaway region of eastern Moldova loyal to Moscow, the year began with only hospitals and damaged buildings, not buildings.

“The hot water was until about 2am, I checked. Now it’s gone and the radiators are not heated,” Dmitry told the BBC by telephone from his home in the enclave.

“We have gas, but the pressure is very low – that’s what’s left in the pipes.”

“It’s the same everywhere.”

Transnistria was separated from the rest of Moldova in a short war when the Soviet Union collapsed. It still has Russian troops on its soil and an economy that depends on Russian gas, for which Tiraspol authorities pay nothing.

“They just have a file, where it says the amount of the loan every month,” explains Jakub Pieńkowski, from the Polish Institute of International Affairs, PSIM. “But Russia does not want to ask for this money.”

Suddenly, the escape route through Ukraine is cut off.

In some Transnistrian towns, the authorities are setting up “burning centers” and there are hotlines to help find firewood. Families have been advised to gather in one room to cool down and patch up cracks in windows and doors and blankets.

New Year’s Day in the region brought sunshine but overnight temperatures are expected to drop below 0C.

“Now it’s freezing inside the house,” resident Dmitry says. “And we don’t know what snow January will bring.”

The electricity is still working.

But Transnistria’s power plant in Kurchugan is already burning coal instead of Russian gas and officials say there is enough for 50 days.

This means problems for the rest of Moldova, which gets 80% of its electricity from Kurchugan.

The government in Chisinau says it has enough gas to heat the country until spring and will switch to buying electricity from Europe, but that means a big price hike.

An emergency plan was put in place last month and businesses and citizens have been told to cut back on energy use with the country facing blackouts.

The sudden stoppage of gas through Ukraine also affects Slovakia and Hungary.

Both have governments sympathetic to Moscow that have been slower than others in the EU to divest themselves of Russian oil and stop funding the Russian military. Paying more for other things will squeeze their budget.

But Moldova is poor and unstable – a long-term crisis could have serious economic and political consequences.

This may be what Moscow wants.

Russia can supply its allies in Transnistria through Turkey, albeit at a higher price, which means electricity for the whole of Moldova.

In fact, Gazprom is said to have suspended operations because Chisinau owes about $700m. The Moldovan government says an international investigation has put the real money at about $9m which has mostly been returned.

“We don’t see it as a power problem but a security problem, which was caused by Russia to disrupt Moldova economically and culturally,” Olga Rosca, foreign policy adviser to the President of Moldova, told the BBC.

“This is what is happening ahead of the parliamentary elections in 2025, so that there is a need to restore Russia’s military power.”

Relations between Moldova and Moscow have been strained.

Once part of the USSR, the country has begun negotiations to join the EU and leave Russia since its invasion of Ukraine.

President Maia Sandu was re-elected last year despite evidence of a massive campaign against her led by Moscow.

It didn’t stop.

Before the launch, Russia’s foreign intelligence agency SVR falsely claimed it wanted to return Transnistria by force to restore electricity. It portrayed the President as “crazy” and “mentally unstable”.

Analyst Jakub Pieńkowski agrees that the Kremlin is using Kyiv’s decision to block the flow of Russian gas.

“It’s a reason to make political and social issues in Moldova,” he says. “Electricity prices have already gone up almost six times in three years and people are angry.”

As the humanitarian situation in Transnistria worsens, the pressure on Chisinau will increase. But Tiraspol is refusing all help, even a generator.

“They will make the story of Chisinau cold for Transnistria to be handed over,” believes Olga Rosca.

And even if Tiraspol decides to buy gas from elsewhere, the hit to its economy could be devastating.

“Prices here will rise, including heat and food. But the pension here is small, and there is no work,” Dmitry told me, from Bendery in the buffer zone on the edge of Transnistria.

He also said that people there “don’t stick” to the status quo. Now life elsewhere in Moldova will also be difficult.

“Russia can wait for the elections and then the non-EU parties will win,” predicts Jakub Pieńkowski.

“Because Maia Sandu can talk about joining the EU. But if people don’t have money for electricity or gas?”

“This is Russia’s goal.”