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In a mild shock to France and Germany, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni last month opposite His government’s “remarkable” stability “compared with the political instability that several large European countries are experiencing”. It offered Italy “a valuable card to play”, increasing its influence on EU affairs, he said.
Melony Hall not alone suggesting that 2025 could be the year of Italy in Europe and on the wider international stage. shown by His Mar-a-Lago trip Last weekend, Donald Trump’s return to the White House appeared to present an opportunity for Meloni to act as a bridge between the next US administration and Europe. Argentine President Javier Milley welcome The rise of a “right-wing international” including himself, Meloni, Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and El Salvador’s President Naib Buquel.
However, some of the claims by Meloni and Italy are exaggerated. true, France There is political paralysis and Germany’s Social Democrat-led coalition has collapsed. But Italy is no different than France and Germany in fearing the impact of Trump’s threatened US tariffs on European exports. Similarly, Meloni’s support for Ukraine may not be entirely compatible with Trump’s foreign policy priorities.
Even in Italy some doubted that Meloni could fill the hole left by his travels to Berlin and Paris. Among them is Mario Draghi, the former prime minister and president of the European Central Bank, who has been the most respected Italian figure on the EU scene in recent times. Draghi He told an audience in Milan last month: “The Franco-German leadership is weakened. But I don’t see any other leadership capable of leading Europe to a common future.
Three factors will limit Meloni and Italy’s influence in the EU: the state of Italy’s economy; his brand of right-wing politics; And unlike the technocrats, the obstacles facing all Italian prime ministers who are politicians, combining leadership at home and in Europe.
The most successful Italian premiers on the EU stage have been non-politicians such as Draghi and Mario MontiA former European Commissioner. Each took office during a period of domestic and European emergency, and each adopted the EU’s founding language and vision. In the end, everyone was underestimated by him lack of A party base in Italy. For a time, however, they were freed enough from domestic political constraints to speak and act with authority in Europe.
In contrast, the prime ministers who command the scene in Italy, viz Silvio Berlusconi or, more briefly, Matteo RenziNot fully believed in Europe. As politicians in a country plagued by short-lived governments, their priority was to tame their unruly coalitions and shore up their electoral base, but they did so with rhetoric and policies that unnerved the EU. This is also Meloni’s problem.
Not in danger of breaking his right-wing alliance, but in recent times divided Higher television license fees show that tensions continue. Most importantly, his passion to please his fans attack on the Judiciary, and the system as such amnesty For illegal construction, clashes with the EU’s emphasis on the rule of law.
Finally, while the French and German economies are in trouble, Italy is hardly in better shape. In addition to little increaseHigh deficits and high public debt, the central issue is the reluctance of the Maloney government. Structural reforms Italy has to deal with long-term relative decline.
Economic weakness, in turn, is a drag on Italian defense spending, which remains Trump’s claims are below expected levels. Since he took power in 2022, Meloni has won friends in the EU and the US by governing more realistically than many initially feared. But a true leadership role in Europe may prove elusive.
