How the Ukraine War could come to an end in 2025

“Ndiyenera kunena kuti zinthu zikusintha kwambiri,” Purezidenti wa Russia, Vladimir Putin, adalengeza pamsonkhano wake womaliza wa chaka mu Disembala. “Pali mayendedwe pamzere wonse wakutsogolo. Tsiku lililonse.”

Kum’maŵa kwa Ukraine, zida zankhondo za ku Moscow zikuyenda pang’onopang’ono mtunda wa kilomita imodzi kudutsa m’madera otseguka a Donbas, midzi ndi matauni akukuta.

Anthu wamba ena akuthawa nkhondo isanawafike. Ena amadikirira mpaka zipolopolozo zitayamba kuphulika mozungulira iwo asananyamule katundu wawo ndi kukwera sitima ndi mabasi kupita kumalo otetezeka kumadzulo.

Russia ikukula mwachangu kuposa nthawi ina iliyonse kuyambira pomwe idayamba kuwukira mu February 2022, ngakhale Kyiv idachita chidwi ndi mbiri yodziwika bwino yolimbana ndi mnansi wake wamphamvu.

Pamene kuwukiraku kukufikira kumapeto kwa chaka chake chachitatu, pamtengo woyerekezeredwa wa anthu miliyoni, ophedwa kapena ovulala, Ukraine ikuwoneka kuti ikutayika.

Ku Washington kutali, panthawiyi, Donald Trump wosadziŵika, wosadziwika chifukwa cha chikondi chake cha Ukraine kapena mtsogoleri wake, watsala pang’ono kulanda White House.

Zimamveka ngati malo osinthika. Koma kodi 2025 ingakhaledi chaka chomwe mkangano wowononga waku Europe ukufika kumapeto – ndipo ngati ndi choncho, mapeto ake angawoneke bwanji?

Lonjezo la a Trump lothetsa kusamvana pasanathe maola 24 atatenga udindo ndi kudzitamandira kwakukulu, koma kumachokera kwa munthu yemwe wasiya chipiriro ndi nkhondo komanso kutenga nawo gawo kwa America.

“Ziwerengero za asitikali achichepere omwe adafa atagona m’mabwalo ponseponse ndizodabwitsa,” adatero. “Ndi zopenga zomwe zikuchitika.”

Koma oyang’anira aku US omwe akubwera akukumana ndi zovuta ziwiri, malinga ndi a Michael Kofman, mkulu wa Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Choyamba, adzalandira nkhondo panjira yoyipa kwambiri, popanda nthawi yochulukirapo kuti akhazikitse zinthu,” adatero mu Disembala. “Chachiwiri, adzalandira cholowa popanda chiphunzitso chomveka bwino cha kupambana.”

Purezidenti wosankhidwa adapereka zidziwitso pa zokambirana zaposachedwa za momwe akufuna kuthana ndi nkhondoyi.

Adauza Time Magazine kuti sanagwirizane “mwamtheradi” ndi ganizo la boma la Biden, mu Novembala, lolola dziko la Ukraine kuphulitsa zida zakutali zomwe zidaperekedwa ndi US kumadera aku Russia.

“Tikungokulitsa nkhondoyi ndikuikulitsa,” adatero.

Pa 8 December, adafunsidwa ndi NBC News ngati Ukraine iyenera kukonzekera thandizo lochepa.

“Mwina,” iye anayankha. “Mwina, zedi.”

Koma kwa iwo omwe akuwopa, monga ambiri amachitira, kuti mtsogoleri watsopano waku America akufuna kuchoka ku Ukraine, adapereka malingaliro olimbikitsa. “Simungagwirizane ngati mutasiya, m’malingaliro mwanga,” adatero.

Chowonadi ndi chakuti: Zolinga za Trump sizikuwonekeratu.

Ndipo pakadali pano, akuluakulu aku Ukraine akukana zokambidwa zonse zokakamiza, kapena lingaliro lakuti kubwera kwa Trump kukutanthauza kuti zokambirana zamtendere zayandikira.

“Pali zambiri zokambitsirana, koma ndi chinyengo,” akutero Mykhailo Podolyak, mlangizi wa ofesi ya Purezidenti Zelensky.

“Palibe zokambirana zomwe zingachitike chifukwa dziko la Russia silinapangidwe kulipira mtengo wokwanira pankhondoyi.”

Pakukayika konse kwa Kyiv pazokambirana pomwe asitikali aku Russia akupitilizabe kum’mawa, zikuwonekeratu kuti Purezidenti Zelensky akufunitsitsa kudziyika ngati munthu yemwe Trump angachite naye bizinesi.

Mtsogoleri wa ku Ukraine sanachedwe kuyamika a Trump chifukwa chakupambana kwake pachisankho ndipo adataya nthawi yotumiza akuluakulu kuti akakumane ndi gulu la Purezidenti.

Mothandizidwa ndi Purezidenti wa France Emmanuel Macron, Zelensky adapezanso msonkhano ndi a Trump pomwe amuna awiriwa adapita ku Paris kukatsegulanso tchalitchi cha Notre Dame.

“Zomwe tikuwona tsopano ndi njira yochenjera kwambiri yochitidwa ndi Purezidenti Zelensky,” nduna yake yakale yakunja Dmytro Kuleba adauza US Council on Foreign Relations mu Disembala.

Zelensky, adatero, “zinali zolimbikitsa komanso zokonzeka kuchita ndi Purezidenti Trump.”

Pokhala ndi chizindikiro chodziwikiratu kuti Kremlin ikuchitanso chimodzimodzi, boma la Kyiv likuyesera kuti lipite patsogolo pamasewerawa.

“Chifukwa Trump sanafotokoze bwino momwe achitire izi, anthu aku Ukraine akuyesera kumupatsa malingaliro omwe angawoneke ngati ake,” akutero Orysia Lutsevych, wamkulu wa Ukraine Forum ku Chatham House.

“Amadziwa momwe angagwirire ntchito ndi ego.”

Ngakhale chisankho cha US chisanachitike, panali zizindikiro zosonyeza kuti Zelensky anali kufunafuna njira zolimbikitsira pempho la Ukraine ngati bwenzi lamtsogolo la purezidenti wosankhidwa ngati Trump yemwe mwachibadwa amachita zinthu mopanda chidwi komanso wosafuna kupitiliza kulemba chitetezo chambiri ku Europe.

Monga gawo la “Victory Plan” yake, yomwe idavumbulutsidwa mu Okutobala, Zelensky adanenanso kuti asitikali aku Ukraine omwe ali ndi vuto lankhondo atha kulowa m’malo mwa asitikali aku US ku Europe nkhondo ndi Russia itatha. Ndipo adapereka chiyembekezo cha ndalama zogwirizanitsa kugwiritsa ntchito zinthu zachilengedwe zaku Ukraine, kuphatikiza uranium, graphite ndi lithiamu.

Zida zanzeru zoterezi, Zelensky anachenjeza, “zidzalimbitsa Russia kapena Ukraine ndi dziko la demokalase”.

Koma zinthu zina za Ndondomeko Yopambana ya mtsogoleri wa ku Ukraine – umembala wa Nato ndi kuyitana kwake kwa “gulu lazinthu zoletsa zida za nyukiliya” – zikuwoneka kuti zakumana ndi kuyankha kofunda pakati pa ogwirizana a Kyiv.

Umembala wa Nato makamaka udakali wokhazikika, monga momwe zakhalira kuyambira kale ku Russia kusanachitike.

Kwa Kyiv, ndi njira yokhayo yotsimikizira kupulumuka kwa dzikolo, motsutsana ndi mdani wankhanza waku Russia yemwe akufuna kugonjetsa Ukraine.

Koma ngakhale adalengeza mu July watha kuti Ukraine inali pa “njira yosasinthika yopita ku mgwirizano wa Euro-Atlantic, kuphatikizapo umembala wa Nato” mgwirizanowu wagawika, ndi US ndi Germany sizinagwirizane ndi kupereka pempho.

Purezidenti Zelensky adanenanso kuti ngati mwayi wokhala umembala upititsidwa kudziko lonselo, m’malire ovomerezeka a Ukraine padziko lonse lapansi, angalole kuvomereza kuti zitha kugwiritsidwa ntchito, poyambira, kudera lomwe likulamulidwa ndi Kyiv.

Izi, adauza Sky News mu Novembala, zitha kuthetsa “gawo lotentha” lankhondo, kulola njira yaukazembe kuthana ndi funso la malire omaliza a Ukraine.

Koma, iye anati, palibe chopereka choterocho chinali chitaperekedwa.

Ngati si NATO, ndiye chiyani? Ndi kuthekera kwa zokambirana zamtendere motsogozedwa ndi a Trump zomwe zikubwera komanso kuti Ukraine ikulephera pabwalo lankhondo, mkangano wapadziko lonse lapansi ndi wokhudza kukulitsa kusakhazikika kwa Kyiv.

“Ndikofunikira kukhala ndi zitsimikizo zamphamvu, zalamulo komanso zothandiza,” Andriy Yermak, wamkulu wa ofesi ya Purezidenti Zelensky, adauza mtolankhani waku Ukraine pa Disembala 12.

Zakale zaposachedwa ku Ukraine, adatero, zidasiya cholowa chowawa. “Mwatsoka, kuchokera pazomwe takumana nazo, zitsimikizo zonse zomwe tinali nazo kale sizinabweretse chitetezo.”

Popanda njira zenizeni zofananira ndi lingaliro lachitetezo chophatikizidwa ndi Ndime 5 ya pangano loyambitsa Nato, owonera akuwopa kuti sipadzakhala chilichonse choletsa kuwukira kwina kwa Russia.

“Zelensky amamvetsetsa kuti sangakhale ndi maliseche,” akutero Orysia Lutsevych.

“Ziyenera kukhala zothetsa nkhondo. Zingakhale zodzipha kwa Zelensky kungovomereza kuthetsa nkhondo komanso kuti asakhale ndi yankho la momwe Ukraine imatetezedwa.”

M’mabwalo azamalamulo ku Europe, akatswiri akhala akuyang’ana njira zomwe Europe ingathandizire kunyamula udindo wolemerawu.

Malingaliro aphatikizanso kutumizidwa kwa alonda amtendere ku Ukraine (lingaliro loyamba lidayandama February watha ndi Macron), kapena kutengapo gawo kwa gulu lankhondo lotsogozedwa ndi Britain la Joint Expeditionary Force, lomwe limakoka pamodzi magulu ankhondo ochokera kumayiko asanu ndi atatu a Nordic ndi Baltic, kuphatikiza Netherlands.

Koma Kofman amakayikira. “Chitetezo chimatsimikizira kuti dziko la United States lilibe nawo gawo ngati m’modzi mwa otsimikizira ali ngati donati yokhala ndi chimphona chosowa pakati pake.”

Ndi malingaliro omwe adanenedwa ku Kyiv.

“Ndi njira iti yomwe ingakhalepo? Palibe njira zina lero,” akutero Bambo Podolyak.

Zidutswa zamapepala, monga 1994 Budapest Memorandum (za Ukraine post-Soviet malire) kapena 2014-15 Minsk mapangano (omwe ankafuna kuthetsa Donbas War) alibe phindu, iye amatsutsa, popanda kuopseza anawonjezera kuletsa asilikali.

“Russia iyenera kumvetsetsa kuti akangoyamba chiwawa, adzalandira ziwonetsero zambiri,” akutero.

Popanda mgwirizano pa tsogolo lalitali la Ukraine, ogwirizana nawo akuchita zomwe angathe kuti alimbitse chitetezo chake.

Mu Disembala, mlembi wamkulu wa Nato, a Mark Rutte, adati “chilichonse” chikuyang’aniridwa, kuphatikiza kuperekedwa kwa zida zodzitchinjiriza zamlengalenga, mwa zina kuti ateteze zida zamphamvu zomwe zidamenyedwa mdzikolo kuti ziwopsedwenso ndi zida zankhondo zaku Russia ndi ma drone.

Pamene Ukraine ikupitirizabe kukumana ndi kuchepa kwakukulu kwa ogwira ntchito, Mlembi wa Chitetezo ku UK John Healey adati boma likhoza kutumiza asilikali a Britain ku Ukraine kuti akathandize pa maphunziro.

Kumbali yake, oyang’anira a Biden omwe akuchoka akuwoneka kuti atsimikiza kupereka thandizo lankhondo lovomerezeka ndi msonkhano momwe angathere ku Ukraine asanachoke paudindo, ngakhale malipoti akuwonetsa kuti itha kutha nthawi yotumiza chilichonse.

Pa 21 Disembala zidanenedwa kuti a Trump apitiliza kupereka thandizo lankhondo ku Ukraine, koma akufuna kuti mamembala a NATO awonjezere ndalama zawo zodzitetezera.

Othandizira a Kyiv apitilizabe kukonzanso zilango ku Moscow, ndikuyembekeza kuti chuma chanthawi yankhondo ku Russia, chomwe chakhala cholimba, chikhoza kutha.

“Pakhala kukhumudwa kwakukulu kuti zilango sizinangosokoneza chuma cha Russia kuti chisathenso,” adatero bungwe la Congress ku US, osadziwika.

Pambuyo pa zilango zingapo (khumi ndi zisanu kuchokera ku EU yokha), akuluakulu aboma akhala akuopa kulosera zomwe zidzachitike.

Koma zisonyezo zaposachedwa zikuchulukirachulukira ku Kremlin. Ndi chiwongola dzanja cha 23%, kukwera kwa mitengo kupitilira 9%, kutsika kwa ruble ndi kukula komwe kukuyembekezeka kutsika kwambiri mu 2025, zovuta zazachuma ku Russia sizikuwoneka ngati zovuta kwambiri.

Putin akupanga nkhope yolimba mtima. “Zilangozo zikugwira ntchito,” adatero pamsonkhano wa atolankhani kumapeto kwa chaka, “koma sizofunikira kwambiri.”

Pamodzi ndi kuwonongeka kwakukulu kwa Russia pabwalo lankhondo – akuluakulu akumadzulo akuyerekeza kuti Moscow ikutaya pafupifupi amuna a 1,500, ophedwa ndi ovulala, tsiku lililonse – mtengo wankhondoyi ukhoza kuyendetsa Putin pagome lokambirana.

Koma kodi Ukraine idzakhala itataya gawo lochuluka bwanji – ndipo ndi anthu angati omwe aphedwa – pofika nthawi imeneyo?

Ngongole yazithunzi zapamwamba: Zithunzi za Getty

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