Gaza ceasefire hopes rise as pressure grows on Hamas and Israel

The Gaza ceasefire and the release of prisoners discussed by Israel and Hamas in indirect talks in Doha have been on the table since May. So why is there new hope that it will work, after eight months of cold war?

A number of things have changed – politically and on the ground.

The first is the election of Donald Trump to be the next president of the US.

He said threatened that “all hell” would break loose if the hostages were not released before taking office on 20 January.

Hamas may read this as a sign that even Biden’s brakes on trying to control the Israeli government have been removed, although it’s hard to imagine what that would mean for a region already torn apart by 15 months of war. .

Israel is also feeling pressure from the incoming president to end the conflict in Gaza, which threatens to undermine Trump’s hopes for regional unity, as well as his desired image as a war-stopping president.

On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing continued pressure from his right-wing allies to continue the war.

But Trump can also be useful to him by persuading his allies to swallow the deal and stay in government; The new US president and his appointee to be the ambassador to Israel appear to be supporting Israeli settlements in the West Bank that were seized by Israel’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich. He said that he wanted to annex.

But after a meeting with the prime minister last night, Smotrich appeared dissatisfied, writing on television that the current agreement is a “disaster” for Israel’s national security and he cannot support it.

Some in Israel, however, believe that both Smotrich and his right-wing counterpart, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, see their position in the Israeli government as their opportunity to control cement in the West Bank, especially with Trump returning to power. The White House, and that it is unlikely to follow through on their threat to quit.

The second thing that has changed is forcing Netanyahu to withdraw from his army.

Large numbers are said to have repeatedly opposed him over the dwindling military objectives to continue the war, after the assassination of the senior leadership of Hamas, and the destruction of Gaza.

Last week, 10 Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza, again highlighting the cost of the war in Israel, and the lingering question of whether the “total victory” over Hamas that Netanyahu had promised would be possible.

Some experts now suggest that Hamas is rebuilding faster than Israel is defeating, so Israel should rethink its strategy.

And there is a third – regional – dimension that is changing the outlook again: the weakening and erosion of Hamas’s allies in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”.from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Bashar al-Assad in Syria, along with the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza.

For all these reasons, now is seen as the best opportunity in months to close the gap between Israel and Hamas and end the war.

What hasn’t changed in the eight months since they last talked are the gaps between them.

The most important among them is the direct conflict between the main concern of Hamas, which wants to end the war, and that of Israel, which wants to open the door to start the conflict again, either for political or military reasons.

agreement, as we reported to President Joe Biden in Mayit is divided into three phases, and the prohibition of perpetual hostilities will come into force in the second phase.

Success may now depend on whether assurances can be found to allay Hamas’ fears that Israel will pull out of the deal after the first phase of hostage releases.

Questions about how to manage the territory from which Israel is withdrawing are also unclear at this point.

But the web of talks running through the region over the past week, and the fact that Netanyahu has sent Israeli security chiefs to talks in Doha, along with a top political adviser, are encouraging signs.

So is the departure from Doha of the coordinator of Palestinian prisoners, Qadoura Fares.

The deal did not materialize – and negotiations have already broken down.

This old agreement adds some hope because the negotiations are taking place in new areas, and the problems are happening inside and outside of other countries.