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Watch this space. This was the essence of Kemi Badenoch new year message Although often soft on the country, these messages should give a sense of how the parties will shape the debate in the coming months. The Tory leader had nothing but “please stay on the line, your call is important to us”.
Politics hates a vacuum and no one expects Badenoch to spend two months working out his entire platform, he doesn’t have as much time as he thinks. Many people are watching this space and not with patience. The Tories are alarmed by the energy and attention generated by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and are already debating how long he has.
A serious and well-connected observer recently admitted that Boris Johnson was an even bet to become the next Prime Minister. He is not alone in this argument and a glance at the former Tory leader’s recent autobiography leaves no doubt that the man himself has not ruled out the possibility.
Perhaps the imminent (and once unimaginable) return of Donald Trump or the sense of crisis in Western politics has prompted such discussions. Johnson fits that mold, though there are compelling reasons why that doesn’t happen. His closest supporters have all left Westminster. He has no base in the country and whatever the UK equivalent of the Maga crowd is, it looks up to Farage. Above all, he reminds voters why the Tory brand is disrespected.
What such chatter illuminates though is the depth of the conservative funk. The Boris theory is ultimately a bet on continued decline and depression. Once, a defeated Tory party can slowly rebuild and wait for the pendulum to swing their way. But the rise of the Reformation denied Badenoch that time and place. Farage may be training his fire on Labor but his first mission is to establish himself as the real opposition.
Badenoch’s first weeks have been uninspiring, unfocused and, at times, hers It even played into Sanskar’s hands. While he is finding his feet, Farage is making headlines. Both GB News and the Telegraph, the two most important media outlets for Dunn, now appear to be little more than extensions of his marketing operation. Membership grew and he enjoyed Elon Musk’s blessing. Farage is social media smart and has an eye for a news story. Even when he’s not winning outright, he’s influencing and changing debates, most obviously on immigration.
Above all, there is an appetite for his message that the two big parties are failing — and inseparable. In the last election, Labor and the Tories combined received only 57 per cent of the vote. The space seems to be widening for a breakthrough disruptor.
already, Prominent conservatives are talking about the deal With which he must return to power. Nevertheless, it is possible to see past some of the hype. Although local elections are likely to enjoy gains over the next 18 months, reforms still have a long way to go. A recent one Opinion polls The prospect of winning 71 seats in the next election has electrified its allies. Yet the same poll showed the Tories almost doubling their current numbers. And in so far as one could take such early polls seriously, its essential message was one of disillusionment with Labour.
An alternative explanation could be that the Reform Liberal Democrats are emerging as a nationalist counterpart (a parallel Farage acknowledges) but on the right of politics, a pirate party with geographic and demographic support and potential where the Conservatives struggle to challenge Labour. Reform has appeal to both left and right, including poor and older Labor voters. Ideological inconsistencies abound but rival factions are generally less penalized for it.
For all the talk of victory, the real aim of reform is to do well enough to hold the balance of power and force a change in the UK’s electoral system, which could permanently reshape the political map.
None of this is to underestimate the party’s potential, least of all to force other parties to its agenda. The ghost of its momentum politics is yet to come. Its growth depends on an unpopular government and an unpopular opposition; Polls show this kind of electoral fragmentation that allows parties to win seats with relatively low vote shares. But while Labor has some time to regain support, Badenoch does not. It would be foolish to rule him out now, but even sympathizers suggest he has a year to 18 months to prove he can rebuild the party.
It may be that some sort of agreement (or just a non-aggression pact) is required by the next election. But Badenoch need not panic now. Also, any deal that leads to electoral reforms is not in his party’s interest. What he needs to do is change the reform narrative by putting conservatives back in the national conversation as the primary voice of opposition and on issues other than immigration. Happily, Labor has offered opportunities in the economy that are matched by its low-tax-regulatory propensity. The Tories, and Badenoch in particular, need to make the case against Rachel Reeves’ tax hike. Looking effective here will buy his time to flesh out his agenda.
Badenoch was elected because the Tories felt he had the charisma and conviction to win their hearings. But he doesn’t have the luxury of taking it out while the right wing is rising around him and a grateful nation waits.
