Can the president-elect meet Ghana’s high expectations?

Former Ghanaian President John Mahama narrowly won last month’s election but will be under pressure to live up to voters’ expectations when he takes office on Tuesday.

After more than three years of economic crisis, Ghanaians are looking for a quick fix.

Mahama returned to power after eight years in opposition, running what political analyst Nansata Yakubu described as a “masterclass” in campaigning.

He defeated Vice-President Mahamudu Bawumia with 56.6% of the vote to 41.6% to get the best margin of victory for a candidate in 24 years.

Mahama’s party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), also managed to secure a majority in parliament, with 183 of the 276 seats.

They are one seat short of the two-thirds required to enact laws and approve budgets and contracts without the votes of members of the other political party.

The result of one parliamentary seat is still not known because of the difference. Four seats are being contested in court by the NDC.

But voter turnout was lower than in the 2020 election, especially in some of the Bawumia New Patriotic Party (NPP) constituencies, meaning that some people there – frustrated with the way they were treated in government – stayed at home.

As Mahama’s supporters celebrated his victory, Belinda Amuzu – a teacher in the northern city of Tamale, where Mahama’s stronghold is – summed up their hope.

“I hope that the new government will change the economy, that the problems will fall. They should also prosecute the corrupt officials so that it will be a lesson for others,” he told the BBC.

“Difficulty” has become a buzzword in Ghana since the 2022 economic meltdown, which led to a financial crisis that damaged Bawumia’s reputation as the “kid of the economy” – and led to his defeat. of Mahama.

However, in an address to the nation on Friday, outgoing President Nana Akufo Addo said he was leaving behind a thriving economy.

“We are giving the country an international income of about $8bn (£6.4bn). This is more than the $6.2bn I received in 2017,” he said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has allocated $1.9bn to help restore the country’s economy since Ghana signed the program in 2022.

However, opposition MPs do not agree with Akufo Addo’s analysis.

“The people of Ghana have already given their decision about the real situation of the country and the decision was clear. Economic problems, huge debt, unemployment among the youth, lack of hope and many other things,” said the minority MP Emmanuel Armah Kofi Boah.

Ghanaian economist Prof Godfred Bokpin told the BBC that the challenges facing the next government are huge.

“What Ghana lacks right now is credible leadership, a stable government and the ability to serve people. Without this, there will be no future,” he said.

Mahama has promised to reduce the size of the cabinet from 80 to 60, but Prof Bokpin said it should be smaller while political expert Dr Kwame Asah-Asante emphasized the need to choose people based on merit rather than loyalty.

Mahama will be accompanied by former education minister Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, who is expected to become Ghana’s first vice president.

Dr Yakubu said his appointment was not a “symbol” and he was not someone who “can be replaced”.

“We have an excellent female vice president in Prof Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang,” he said. BBC Focus on Africa podcast.

Mahama served as president for four years after winning in 2012, but failed to win re-election in 2016 when Nana Akufo-Addo ascended to the throne with Bawumia as his rival.

Dr Yakubu said Mahama contested the 2016 election on his record of building roads, schools and hospitals but voters rejected him, as their slogan was: “We don’t eat infrastructure.”

But, he said, during the Covid epidemic, voters appreciated what his government had built, especially hospitals.

This – coupled with the fact that the economy had fallen into deep trouble under the current government, forcing it to seek a $3bn (£2.4bn) bailout from the IMF – led to Mahama’s re-election, Dr Yakubu added.

He told the BBC that Mr Mahama is expected to deliver on his promise to create jobs to reduce unemployment to around 15%, and reduce the cost of living by removing taxes – or what Ghanaians call them. “problem taxes”.

Mahama has promised to make Ghana a “24-hour economy” through the creation of night jobs in the government and public sector. He said that he will give taxes to the businesses to stay open at night and to reduce the electricity prices for them.

But his critics are skeptical, saying that Ghana fell into the worst power crisis during his first term and the power shortage was so bad that Mahama joked at the time that he was “Mr. Dumsor” – “dum” means “to leave” and “sor” means “pa” in the local Twi language.

He has promised to scrap a number of taxes – including the much-criticized electricity tax on mobile phones and the emissions tax produced by petrol or diesel vehicles.

Prof Bokpin said he doubted that the Mahama government would fulfill its promises.

“They didn’t do a cost-benefit analysis. There’s no room in the budget to translate those promises into reality,” he said.

Prof Bokin believes that economic recovery and economic growth will take a long time.

He said: “If you’re talking about economic change and productivity growth, you’re looking at 15 years and beyond where you’re doing the right things all the time.

“In Ghana we cannot do the right thing consistently for a long time. We do the right thing in the middle of an election and then we mess it up.”

But Mahama is confident he will prove his critics wrong, saying he wants to renegotiate the IMF loan so that money can be withdrawn from “sensitive programs” in a country where 7.3 million people live in poverty.

In an interview before the election, Mr Mahama told the BBC that the IMF wanted “a plan” for the government’s finances.

“If you can reduce your expenses, and you can increase the income and increase the non-tax income coming in, you will be able to make money,” he said.

Dr Asah-Asante said Mahama’s experience as a former president would help him steer Ghana through difficult waters.

“Of course, he may face difficulties, but he has what it takes to change things,” added the expert.

Apart from the economy, corruption is one of the biggest problems facing Ghana but not everyone has faith that Mahama will solve the problem.

Mahama’s tenure in government – as vice president and president – has been marred by corruption, although he has always denied any wrongdoing.

In 2020, a court in the UK found that the aviation giant Airbus used bribes to secure contracts with Ghana’s military aircraft between 2009 and 2015.

An investigation was launched in Ghana, but the Office of the Special Prosecutor, in a decision announced a few months before the election, concluded that there was no evidence that Mahama was involved in fraud.

The outgoing government has also been hit by corruption allegations, including the purchase of ambulance equipment at a cost of $34.9m and a controversial cathedral project in which $58m has been spent without progress on construction.

Mahama has promised that his government will fight corruption, and ensure that officials are prosecuted for wrongdoing.

“We are thinking about special courts,” he told the BBC.

Mahama has already launched an operation he calls Operation Recover All Loot (Oral), which aims to trace government funds and assets suspected of being stolen by outgoing government officials.

Dr Asah-Asante said Mahama should ask the outgoing government to respond to the financial issues at the time of handing over the items so that whatever has gone wrong can be rectified as soon as his government starts working next month.

The expert added that Mahama, who will occupy the seat the second when President Akufo-Addo stepped down after serving two terms, he had no choice but to fulfill the expectations of Ghanaians – otherwise he would “punish his government as he punished the NPP”.

Mahama frankly acknowledged this in his winning speech, saying: “The expectations of the Ghanaian people are very high, and we cannot let them down.

“Our best days are not behind us; our best days are ahead of us. Always forward – never backward.”