What Virginia’s special elections tell us about the bigger ballot box battles to come in 2025, 2026

The Democrats kept their narrow majority in the Virginia Legislature as they won two of three special elections on Tuesday in the first showdowns at the 2025 ballot box.

Competitions that were closely followed by the political world were considered the first indicator of voter mood since Trump’s President-elect a landslide victory in November, in an election in which Republicans also won control of the US Senate and retained their fragile majority in the House of Representatives.

They are also seen as an early barometer for high-profile gubernatorial contests later this year in Virginia and New Jersey and the battle for Congress in next year’s midterm elections.

The Associated Press predicts that Democrats will win both special elections in Loudon County, in northern Virginia.

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In a special election for the state Senate, Democrat Kannan Srinivasan, currently a member of the state House, defeated Republican Tumay Harding. The seat became vacant after Democratic state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam was elected to Congress in November.

And in a separate race for Srinivasan’s vacant House seat, Democrat JJ Singh, a small business owner and former congressional aide, bested Republican Ram Venkatachalam.

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Loudon County, on the outer fringes of the metropolitan area surrounding the nation’s capital, has been at the epicenter of a national debate in recent years over bathroom policies for transgender students and allowing them to play women’s sports.

The once Republican-dominated district has trended Democratic over the past decade as Loudon’s population has continued to grow. Vice President Kamala Harris easily carried the district in November’s race for the White House, even as Trump improved on his results four years ago.

The Democrats’ margins in their two wins in Loudon County on Tuesday were close to Harris’ victory over Trump in the district in November.

A third special election was held Tuesday in a state Senate district in the central part of the state, where Republican Luther Cifers defeated Democrat Jack Trammell.

The seat became vacant when Trump-backed state Sen. John McGuire narrowly beat U.S. Rep. Bob Goode in a contested GOP primary last June before winning Congress in November.

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Democrats will maintain their 21-19 majority in the Virginia Senate and 51-49 control of the state’s House of Delegates during Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s final year in office.

Youngkin got energized Republicans across the country three years ago, as the first candidate to come from the party’s business wing, he bested former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe in 2021 to become the first GOP candidate in a decade to win a gubernatorial election in a once-volatile state that had flipped over the previous decade according to the democrats.

Virginia is unique because of its state law that prevents governors from serving two consecutive four-year terms, so Youngkin cannot run for re-election next year.

Virginia and New Jersey are the only two states in the country to hold gubernatorial elections the year after a presidential election. Because of this, both contests receive a lot of national attention, and Virginia in particular is often seen as a vanguard of the national political climate and how Americans feel about the White House party.

Asked what Tuesday’s election results mean for this year’s gubernatorial races and next year’s midterm elections, veteran Virginia-based Republican strategist Zack Roday told Fox News: “I hate to be boring about it, but it’s not a useful indicator yet. It’s just too early. It’s still too close to the November elections. People are just not engaged.”

“The party in power in these off-year elections usually hits, but nothing has shown that yet in the data I’ve seen,” Roday added.

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Pointing to Cifer’s victory in the state Senate, longtime political scientist David Richards of Lynchburg University in Virginia said, “I think it shows that people are still behind Trump. We’re not seeing the backlash that some people say is coming.”

With a nod to Trump, Roday added that when it comes to Republicans on the ballot, “there’s no running away from him. He’s an asset in the election.”

The special election was held the day after a winter storm hit Virginia.

“The winter weather dampened the votes today,” Richards said.

“Turnout will end up being a lot less live, but early voting has been pretty good, especially for a special election,” he added.