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A security crisis has emerged in Europe. In 2025 the two dangerous elements may merge. The growing threat from Russia and Donald Trump’s growing indifference to America.
European countries urgently need to respond to this alarming geopolitical combination by building their own defenses. For this to happen, it is crucial for Germany, Europe’s largest economy, to finally do well for Chancellor Olaf Scholz. promise Dramatic increase in defense spending.
Making the political case for increased defense spending requires clarity about what is going on in both Russia and America.
Mark Rutte, the recently appointed Secretary General of NATO, to warn Last month that: “Russia’s economy is at war. . . Danger is coming full speed towards us.” He called on NATO to rapidly increase defense production and “change the wartime mentality”.
Last April, General Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s supreme commander in Europe, warned that: “Russia shows no signs of stopping. Russia doesn’t want to stop with Ukraine either. Western analysts argue that Russia is already engaged in a hybrid war with Europe – involving regular sabotage that risks mass casualties.
During the Cold War, the United States led the allied response when Russia increased military pressure in Europe. But the American response this time promises to be very different. President-elect Trump’s key hires include advisers who have been outspoken about his desire to redeploy American military assets from Europe to Asia.
Elbridge Colby, who was recently named Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, wrote China is a much higher priority for the US than Russia in the FT last year, arguing that “the US must keep forces from Europe that are needed in Asia, even if Russia strikes first”.
European defense analysts fear that a US military withdrawal from Europe will encourage Russian aggression. in recent times book Chatham House’s Keir Giles argues: “Withdrawing America’s military support for NATO is the surest way to make the possibility of a Russian invasion outside of Ukraine a possibility.”
In much of Europe, however, the Russian threat still seems remote. In nearly three years of war in Ukraine, Moscow’s army has made limited territorial gains and inflicted staggering losses — now estimated at 700,000 soldiers killed or wounded.
But the amount of casualties Vladimir Putin is willing to absorb should also be a warning. The Russian army is bigger now than it was at the start of the war in 2022.
European countries lack the manpower and equipment to fight the kind of war Russia is waging in Ukraine. At the start of last year, the British army stood at 73,520 – the lowest since 1792. The German army numbered 64,000.
NATO military planners think the alliance is about one-third short of effectively deterring Russia. There are particular shortages of air defense, logistics, ammunition and secure communications equipment.
Alliance members currently commit to spending 2 percent of GDP on defense. They may raise that nominal target to 3 percent at the next NATO summit. But this will only be enough if European countries agree to fragment purchases much less along national lines.
A 3 percent target is also based on the assumption that America will largely maintain its commitment to NATO. If not, defense planners think European countries will have to raise defense spending to 4.5 percent of GDP. But even 3 percent looks pretty solid. The problem is embodied by Rutte’s own record as Prime Minister of the Netherlands from 2010 to 2024. In the last year of his term, his country achieved only 2 percent of the target.
The closer you get to the Russian border, the more seriously the Russian threat is taken. Poland will increase its defense spending to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2025. However Large Western European economiesThis is a different story. Germany and France hit just 2 percent last year; Britain was at 2.3 percent.
France’s budget deficit is 6 percent of GDP and public debt is over 100 percent. The British government is also heavily indebted and struggling to raise revenue.
But Germany – with a debt-to-GDP ratio of just over 60 percent – has fiscal room to spend much more on defense. It still has a significant industrial and engineering base.
Friedrich Marz of the Christian Democrats, who is likely to emerge as German chancellor after this year’s election, took the Russian threat seriously. He may preside over a historic change. If Germany relaxes its constitutional provisions against deficit financing — and recognizes the need for common EU debt to finance European defense — it could change the continent’s security landscape.
Even 80 years after the end of World War II, some of Germany’s neighbors – notably Poland and France – would feel uneasy about German rearmament. But, for their own safety, they have to get over it.
