The Speaker’s Lobby: The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Electing a House Speaker

Constitution mandates that the 119th Congress begin at noon on Friday.

And the first task in the House of Representatives is to elect an official for constitutional law for the legislative branch of government: the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Only the House votes for the president. And the House can do nothing – I repeat, nothing – until it elects a president.

He cannot swear in members until the House touch the speaker and he or she is sworn. The speaker then mass swears the rest of the body. Next, the House must adopt a package of rules to govern day-to-day operations. Only then can the House proceed to the debate on bills, voting and the establishment of hearing committees.

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If the Chamber fails to elect a president in the first round, it must proceed to the second round.

And on and on.

Consider for a moment that the House of Representatives had never voted a second time for the President in the entire century before Donnybrook two years ago. It took four votes to re-elect the late Speaker of the House Frederick Gillett, R-Mass., in 1923.

What is past is prologue for Home. Consider how the House spent 15 rounds spread over five days before electing former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in January 2023. The speaker’s seat remained vacant—and thus the House frozen—for 22 days after Republicans ousted McCarthy nine months later. House Republicans then elected House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., as speaker. Scalise withdrew his name before the vote even took place. House GOPs then selected Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, to become speaker. But Jordan has lost three straight votes for speaker of the House of Representatives, bleeding support on each vote. House Republicans then appointed House Majority Leader Tom Emmer, R-Minn., as speaker. Emmer retired hours later.

Fox News Digital spoke briefly with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy during a rare appearance on Capitol Hill

House Republicans finally nominated House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., for the post. The Louisiana Republican won on the floor. But some conservatives have since become disillusioned with Johnson. They noted that he had been handling multiple temporary utility bills from last November onwards. They didn’t like that he released the aid bill for Ukraine. They opposed him making another interim spending budget in September. They really didn’t like how he was working with Democrats on major bills that had to be done. And then there was the misstep with the incredible 1,500-page interim spending package which Mr. Trump and Elon Musk scattered from afar in December. Johnson then met President-elect Trump’s demands with another spending package – which included raising the debt ceiling. But 38 Republicans in the House of Representatives rejected the bill.

So Johnson’s tenure was difficult. And that is why he is under attack on Friday afternoon during the vote for the Speaker of the Parliament. Everyone on Capitol Hill is at a loss as to when this should end expeditiously.

Here’s what will happen on Friday at noon:

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Acting Clerk of the House Kevin McCumber will preside until the House elects a Speaker. The first order of business is the “decision of the House”. This is where the House determines how many of its elected members are there, simply by voting “present”. House should have entered to 434 members: 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats. There should be one free seat. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned in the fall – and said he had no “intended” to serve in the new Congress, despite being re-elected.

Monitor whether there are any absences in that call to the House. Fox was told that Democrats who have recently battled health problems — including Reps. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., Dwight Evans, D-Penn., and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. — are likely to be there. But the election of the Speaker of the Parliament is mathematics. How many legislators report to the House of Representatives will dictate the margins in the presidential vote.

Then it’s on to the nomination speech. New House Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain, R-Mich., will nominate Johnson for president. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., will nominate House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. Anyone else can then put someone’s name in the nomination.

Then the House convenes a list of elected members in alphabetical order. Each member stands up and responds verbally, calling their choice by name. Reps. Alma Adams, DN.C., Robert Aderholt, R-Ala., and the aforementioned Aguilar are the first names off the block.

(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

But MPs can vote for whoever they want. This includes persons who are not members of the House. That’s why over the years there have been votes for the late Gen. Colin Powell, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., former Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., and former US Comptroller General David Walker.

Here’s what Johnson—or anyone else—must do to win the presidency:

The winning candidate must secure an outright majority of all members voting for the candidate by name.

So let’s say there are 434 members and they all vote for someone by name. The magic number is 218. If Johnson gets the votes of all 219 Republicans, he wins. If Johnson gets 218 votes, he also wins. But 217? No dice. Under those circumstances, Johnson would prospectively edge Jeffries, 217-215 – with two votes going to the other candidates. But “most votes” does not win. 217 is not a direct majority of House members who vote for someone by name. The Chamber of Deputies must once again vote for the election of the President.

Fox was told there are between 12 and 17 Republicans who might vote for someone other than Johnson. And some Republicans are cautious about their votes.

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Here’s something to watch: Members voting “present”.

Instead of voting for someone other than Johnson, some Republicans may protest by simply voting “present.” The “present” vote does not count against Johnson.

So let’s do some hypothetical math here:

Let’s say that 434 members voted. Jeffries secures the support of all 215 Democrats. Three Republicans vote “present.” In other words, don’t vote for any candidate by name. Johnson wins 216 votes. He has the most votes. But more importantly, only 431 MPs voted for someone by name. 216 is an outright majority of 431. 434 doesn’t matter under the circumstances. So Johnson becomes a speaker.

But there is a serious danger of too many Republicans voting “present.”

Consider this scenario:

All 215 Democrats are voting for Jeffries. But five Republicans vote “present.” Johnson recorded 214 votes. 429 Members vote for someone by name. The magic number here is 215. Guess who the speaker is? Jeffries. He won an outright majority of all members who voted for the candidate by name.

(Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

As they say in the movies, “You are playing a very dangerous game, Mr. Bond.”

With such a slim margin in the House, Republicans they are absolutely messing around with fire if they become half too sweet. That. Some conservatives may not want to re-elect Johnson as president. But they certainly don’t want Jeffries.

So it’s hard to say what happens on a Friday afternoon. If the House of Representatives hesitates for too long, it could delay the certification of the vote of the Electoral College on Monday. The House and Senate must meet in a joint session of Congress on January 6 to confirm the election results. There is no chairman of the House of Representatives? There is no joint session.

But something else is likely to unravel if this drags on. Johnson loyalists and mainstream Republicans had problems with right-wing ideologues, the Freedom Caucus and other libertarians. Expect an all-out fight between the two factions if the Republicans vie for the presidency.

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And as we wrote earlier, what has passed is a prologue.

The protracted battle for the presidency serves as a prologue to looming, infighting among Republicans over governance. That is to say nothing of the implementation of a single element of President-elect Trump’s agenda.