Canelo, ‘The Monster’ Inoue, Tank Davis and other not-so-accurate boxing predictions for 2025

Would Frank Bay: The masses are clamoring for the boxing mega event of the year, Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence “Bud” Crawford, in 2025. Well, not so much. Boxing hasn’t had a legitimate major crossover event since the recent Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson circus and the 2023 Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis vs. Ryan Garcia mega-event, which was rumored to hit the million PPV buy milestone. And let’s be honest, Davis vs. Garcia wasn’t a mega event like the last true crossover event with the mass appeal of Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao.

Canelo is the last of the PPV boxing stars as the model for success changes due to streaming, such as the Paul vs. Tyson event on Netflix. But the last time Alvarez hit the million mark was against Gennady Golovkin in their second fight on HBO Day in 2018. Since then, Alvarez’s numbers have dipped, and he’s only reaching about 500,000 to 650,000 reported PPVs. It’s only approaching 1 million, with Caleb Plant at 800k in 2021, which seems about 20 years ago given the current landscape of boxing with no more Showtime or HBO.

The fights are well talked about, and the fight Bad and Turki Al-Sheikh are looking for is Canelo Alvarez. But honestly, it’s not a mega event that would reach the gold standard of 1 million, considering how every Bud PPV flopped without Errol Spence, and the reported Israil Madrimov fight did a paltry 150k PPV buys. Turki took a bath at the event, reportedly losing millions even with a stacked undercard and an Eminem performance. The reality is that the fight is not a crossover fight and would probably max out at 750k PPV. The only other reality is the David Benavidez fight, which would probably max out at 800k since it’s not a huge cross-over event, with Bennie’s PPVs falling apart, he reportedly made 75k for his fight with Demetrius Andrade on November 25, 2023. .

It’s true that Alvarez is in no man’s land, and his options as an opponent of Dmitri Bivol or Artur Beterbiev make less than his fight against Edgar Berlanga, because Berlanga was a bigger name on the state side. I can’t offer a sound prediction as the future looks bleak for Alvarez and his choice of opponents in 2025. A Jake Paul fight would be the way to go as he could fight for the Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao crossover that boxing desperately needs. Alvarez’s current 168-pound division has decent fighters but doesn’t attract stars in Cristian Mbili, Diego Pacheco and unknowns Osli Iglesias and William Skall. No one would be willing to pay Alvarez north of $35 million to fight on PPV. If we want to get a MEGA fight between Bado and Canelo, Turki Al-Shiekh will need to raise at least $100 million to gain the interest of the US market. If anyone can, it’s Turki.

Moving on to the A-list of boxing stars, we have ‘The Monster’ Naoya Inoue and Tank Davis. The sad truth is that I don’t see any name opponents other than each other really becoming a crossover star. Inoue, the number 1 boxer, has reached his limit. Maybe Top Rank envisioned another meteoric rise like Pac-Man, because Inoue has the Asian market like Manny, but he can’t make it through the weight class, which was never fair to expect from him. But if Inoue is to have a breakout fight, it’s one Tank Davis, who exists in fantasyland. Inoue has good opponents ahead of him at 126 with Bruce Carrington and Rafael ‘El Divino’ Espinoza. However, none of those fights will generate the furore in the American media that Manny did with his rivals Eric Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera. Look for Inoue to play it safe in 2025 and prepare for an all-out rising sun showdown with Junto Nakatani.

Last and certainly least is Tank Davis, who has done nothing to reclaim his throne as the face of boxing following the high-profile success of his affair with Ryan Garcia. Beating Frank Martin didn’t do him any good after losing money and taking a year off after being in the heat, and that fight reportedly brought in less than 200k PPV. With Vasily Lomachenko deciding to sit down and fix his back, Davis was left without a viable name to sell his PPV event. He decided to pick Lamont Roach, and now with multiple cancellations, people are wondering if the fight will even happen in 2025. Davis must know he needs a big name in 2025, but there aren’t many besides the man he already beat, Ryan Garcia . The reality is that other names are not stars like Ryan. Shakur Stevenson, Teofimo Lopez and Devin Haney are damaged goods. With Manny Pacquiao rumored to return, the obvious mega cross-over event would be Pac-Man vs. Tank Davis. A Manny vs. Davis fight would put Davis over Alvarez, but something tells me that Davis and his trainers want to play it safe like they always have. Declaring daring, nothing lost.