Internal emails reveal ONS fears about troubled UK jobs survey

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According to the Financial Times email, the main topics, including UK employment data, were brought to the notice of the Statistics Organization after the sample size for an estimate.

Richard Heis, The Deputy Chief Economist OfficeIn October 2021, an email warned that the agency had a long -running labor force survey (LFS) had “little and falling qualifications”, adding a data point “step” to an industry.[d] 30%“by” sample size due to falling.

Senior personalities of ons published in response to information freedom request by FTs came before a briefing of the chief Sir Ian Diamond of theons short time before October 2023 The statistics of the original labor market With just one day’s notice.

Diamond said The House of Commons Treasury Select Committee last month 17 October 2023 briefing he became aware of the survey fragility and unbelief, which incorporated critical economic statistics in the United Kingdom like unemployment rate.

Through the Email of 2021, Hies said that a new survey under the development of the people – “converted” Labor Force Survey (TLFS) – “presenting some challenging data” but still advised to cancel the existing LFS.

“There are very little and falling qualifications in holding LFS and the main thing is not when TLFS is perfect, it is not clear than the LFS,” the Hiece wrote on October 12, 2023.

“Anyone who has just seen a statistics was removed by 30% because the sample size for the industry in the LFS survey fell into only five people. The The I think we are probably already there from my point of view, ”he added.

The email does not specify what data was affected, but indicates that the HIES title is talking about a statistics of the detailed industry published in addition to the number of unemployment.

The Highs also describes how the problems of the ONS officials should be presented to diamonds. “We need to be careful to hear positive but not Pongolosian. Data quality and stakeholders’ feedback to the sid hits non-trivial problems [Sir Ian Diamond] With it and it is important we don’t sound like us [are] Underplay these, “he said in the email.

The correspondence provides a decision -making insight at the Belliid Agency, which is a fire for politicians “Statistics of pseudoscience” Principal “The main blind spots”The

The LFS Covid -1 epidemic of the ons began to significantly decrease during the epidemic when the onS was personally forced to switch to telephone interviews. At the end of 2023, the survey response rate was reduced Below 15 percentThe

Despite the plan to switch to an online-first TLFS by 2024, “Systematic” short investment and “repeated over-aptimism” According to an ons internal review, the project has been significantly delayed.

Employment estimates are still based on defective original surveys and transfer to TLFs is not expected to be at least 2026.

From October 2023, the ons presentation slides highlighted the “nervousness” among the original stakeholders about moving to TLFs soon, citing concerns about data quality.

The onS didn’t comment.