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In general, the Cook Islands only attract the attention of honeymoon, green workers and kiwi diplomats. The reason for this is that the countryside has a security agreement with New Zealand (and by extension, Western allies) and the stunning palm-lined beaches are threatened by the growing sea.
But we do not live in general; US President Donald Trump is breaking the post -political order. And this week Mark Brown, the Cook Islands Premier, Starting an investment agreement With China.
The New Zealand government screamed loudly in fear of Trump’s revenge. However, the Cook Islands seem to be unemployed. And in the Pacific region, the specs of these lands have become a strong symbol of how geographical sand is transferred.
As Trump’s hurricanes spread around the world, the two main themes are becoming clear: American leaders can be determined, environmentally, social or diplomatic to increase our growth at any cost; And they are equally determined to shake the Hijmonic power, military, financial, technology and trade interests together.
As a result, other countries face three preferences: become a vasals of the American Empire; Opposition to our rivals like China and Russia; Or copy the Cook Islands and try to hedge your bats.
Some have already liked them. Take Nicaragua. Last month, in the threat of Panama attacks from Trump and/or China to expel China from its famous canal, The Nicaraguan government has changed its constitution To enable the Atlantic and Pacific connectors to build a waterway. It can present alternatives to the Panama Canal and shows that Nicaragua is doubled in China’s camp.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Japanese Premier Shigeru Ishiba has come to pay homage. During the Washington visit last week, he praised Trump’s “Effort to bring peace to the world” and promised to buy $ 1TN in the US and purchase the Odals of American liquid natural gas.
I predicted that Tokyo would soon try to strengthen Yen (to promote American allegations about competitive depreciation) and even long-dates or permanent US treasury (to “pay” for American military protection).
Meanwhile, Narendra Modi, Indian Premier, Also remained in Washington this weekPromise to increase imports of US LNG and planes. And Britain has just attended the United States at an artificial intelligence summit in Paris.
When I recently chatted with Vietnam Prime Minister Fam Min Chanhah, he paid homage to Trump to pay tribute to Trump-to distract the President of the US that Vietnam is now basically US bilateral trade trade surplus (because the world is in the US. Has shifted production there to avoid restrictions).
“We’re looking for 50 to 100 planes [from the US] And other high-tech items, “he noted that he would say” playing golf all day “with Trump” “if it is good [national] Interest “. Diplomats say he has one more possible” gift “: Trump has been known to be interested in investing in a big casino. If that is what could happen if it was.
However, the problem of Vietnam – just like every other nation – Trump is now so intriguing that no one knows that no one will guarantee protection. In the words of the traders, it is impossible for the government and investors to “pay” in long -term “prices”.
Thus, there is also a growing tempt to slide the “bow to the ruler and then go to your own way” to quote the famous Bukran proverb among Silk Road merchants. In other words, perform the performance while hedging your bats.
Indeed, according to the Global Capital Allocation Project, it is probably the only cute thing done for most countries (Hijmonic is a research site related to economic power Which countries show the most risky for American and Chinese hejmonic energy) It is full of effective charts. These notes, diversified inputs, if countries increase “economic security” in a intriguing world, it is important.
This hedging trend has the consequences. A ‘is the trade swollen between countries in the United States, Overall global trade Volume, regardless of Trump. Another is the supply chain Growing upIncrease in potential expenditure. And the third is that the tents of the Chinese influence are ultimately spread – even on the distant Pacific beaches – such as Beijing seems to be almost more estimated, globalist power.
Honestly, it flies in the face of Trump’s desired aspiration of the wings of Beijing. In fact, future historians can label his entire strategy as self-defeated. However, at this point, the President is sure that his leverage depends on acting in an unpredictable and empire system.
Perhaps he will finally realize that these techniques also create the need to hedge, because no one can believe “price” – peace – or America. But do not bet on it. In the meantime, hope that these performances will be on ing with fake smiles.
