Trump has put the ball back in Putin’s court on Ukraine

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On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to establish a discussion process to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. Vloadimir Zensky, the president of the war, was not at the call, but Trump sat down to tell him what had agreed, and he probably sat down on the role he could play. Zelnsky has been very good at the call before the last November US election to stay closer to Trump.

It dismisses the two main features of Ukraine’s claim, despite the comments of US officials: all the regions of illegally seized by Russia and the US -backed protection guarantee, NATO. Officials in the Trump administration are consistent in pointing to the inability of Ukraine to liberate all its lost territory in military ways. Meanwhile, the new American Defense Secretary, Pete Hegsheth, told his NATO counterpart that the United States did not see European protection as the main priority. He also added that in Ukraine, however, it can be expected to guarantee its own protection, they will provide Europeans.

Since the ceasefire lines tend to be frozen, this possibility is horribly seen because of the cities of Kiev and the lost people in Russia. Nevertheless, when the preparations for bringing Trump’s Putin from the cold and pre-concern concession have led to widespread disappointment among Ukraine supporters, the discussion has not started and we are far from the actual contract.

Many Ukraine will welcome the ceasefire. The country can use a vacation to build up and to build its armed forces and to restore its economy. As the Russians expect, a ceasefire does not require that it leaves its lost territory to recover forever. Or Americans did not suggest that Ukraine should be accepted in the rest of Moscow’s demands – it acknowledges more territory to Russia, disarms its forces and changes its rule and constitution.

Putin is no doubt that Trump is delighted to treat with respect by respect. However, without fulfilling these other claims, he will not be able to achieve his war goals. After discussing the long -term peace settlement, he did not agree with American ideas for the ceasefire on the current line of communication between the two sets of forces. To be sure, it can hold him a large part of the Ukrainian land, but Ukraine will also have the possibility of reconstructing his forces to return to the battle with Western assistance. Russia needed subsidy and the police occupied, most of which were destroyed by multiple destructive battles and protected a long border.

That is why Putin claimed that a peace settlement that allowed him to achieve the war of the Ukraine’s subjugation could be agreed before any ceasefire. His starting position is even more ambitious, as is confirmed in his call with Trump. He wants to deal with this considering the “root causes” of the situation – the development of an adverse European protection order to Russia since the end of the Cold War.

There is no reason to think that Trump is interested in any of it. Hegastha’s comment is suggested that as far as the administration is related, Russians should talk to Europeans about the future of Europe. And although NATO can fall into the list of US priorities, which means reversing the consequences of NATO growth is also a low priority. Since Trump emphasizes the importance of the initial consequences of the fight, he is not going to accept that a final settlement must be agreed before the ceasefire goes into effect. It may take many months to discuss all outstanding problems. And, the memories of abandoning Afghanistan in Joe Biden’s rating in August 2021 are still new, and even if he intends to move Kiev to further sovereignty and the region, he is limited, even if he wishes. His officials say he does not do that.

The most awkward to Putin is that his bid is not so powerful. Russia enjoyed military initiatives by late 2021 and it has grown, but they have not yet reached the borders of the claims and have come at a extraordinary high cost. So far the campaign against critical infrastructure to shake Ukraine and leave in the dark in the winter has failed.

And Ukraine has taken its own initiative. Six months later it still holds a part of the Kurske, which Jensky Gameley offered to trade for the return of the Ukrainian region, and it now attacks valuable targets inside Russia with regular oil refinery. Russia’s economy is starting to talk under the strain, showing the decrease in government estimates when inflation is high.

So as the teams of the discussion are starting to get involved, Putin has to work on whether he can get away from his maximum claim. Perhaps he may agree on the ceasefire, but only with a strict discussion schedule for some initial relief regarding the final settlement and restrictions; He may probably admit Ukraine EU membership. But if Ukraine is independent and armed, he will fail. Putin should be blamed for this big push failure for peace, but he found that Trump was ready to even increase support for Kiev and impose further sanctions on Russia.