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Roula Khalaf, editor of the FT, picks her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
(adjective and noun) the current holder of an office or position
For more than a century, this has been one of the most fundamental concepts in political science Incumbent benefits. You could call it electoral gravity, a force that pulls everything towards the person or group running the show. Many reasons. Incumbency offers the benefits of strong name recognition, established fundraising networks, relationships with the media and a track record.
But it’s no longer clear that it holds, and many things that provided a boost at the ballot box can now create a backlash. In 2024, when more than Half of the world’s population Eligible to vote in an election, incumbents were deported from the United States to the United Kingdom and beyond.
When the long-term trend across the democratic world was one of strong economic growth and progress more broadly defined, having a record in power was a good thing. Absent a nasty economic shock or serious misstep, parties can run successful campaigns by focusing on tangible improvements they deliver during their tenure.
With stagnation now ideal, This has turned his head. “Vote for us if you want four more years of flat living standards and other things to get worse” is not a clear vote winner.
Similarly, in an increasingly fragmented media landscape where new politicians can speak directly to voters, being well-known to mainstream news organizations is no longer a big incentive. If Elon Musk has his wayEven the incumbent’s fundraising advantage may soon be a thing of the past.
If this trend continues, it bodes ill for conscientious centrists, for measured rhetoric, and for increasing policy success. We seem to be in a new era where all candidates, incumbents and outsiders alike, have a strong incentive to run as populists with promises of quick wins and radical reforms.
