Faced with turmoil, a defiant Trudeau hangs on for now

It was one of the worst weeks of his political career, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was crying during the season.

At the Liberal Party’s annual holiday conference, Trudeau put on the face of his party, despite being blindsided the day before by the resignation of one of his most trusted allies, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, hours before he was due to deliver a speech on the economy. Parliament.

But even as some members of his party asked him to leave, the Prime Minister spoke with conviction and irony as he addressed the party in a suit and black tie.

He also spoke of his “difficult” week, comparing it to a family battle.

He talked about being “brave” and “ambitious” in the face of adversity, and admired his political partner, Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s opposition Conservative Party.

Pundits said later that it sounded like campaign rhetoric, and that despite the recent political upheaval, Trudeau seemed to be digging it.

That did not change on Friday, although the leader of the progressive New Democrat Party (NDP) Jagmeet Singh said he would pass a resolution to remove the Trudeau government in the new year. It was the support of the NDP that kept the Liberals in power. The election now seems imminent.

However, Trudeau has not said he will resign any time soon, although he is said to have told his colleagues that he will take some time during the winter break to think about what to do next.

Political observers say Trudeau has often shown intransigence under pressure, which has helped him weather several controversies during his nine years in office.

And he is often ridiculed, as when he won the government in 2015 at the age of 44, despite his political opponents portraying him as a rare commodity.

But as pressure mounts for him to step down, some of the same experts say he may need an alternative.

When Trudeau ran for prime minister, three words followed him: Not ready.

The speech was part of a series of ads played repeatedly across the country as he tried to oust Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a Conservative who has been in power since 2004.

It presented the criticisms he faced at the time about his youth, his lack of knowledge and his path to politics.

Trudeau “walked around” as a child before becoming a drama teacher in Vancouver, says Canadian historian Raymond Blake, who appears to be the famous and wealthy son of former Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau.

But as soon as he entered politics, Trudeau began to struggle.

It’s a trait that some say he learned from his father, who was known to be a leader but who struggled with leadership, and who is known for his words “just watch me,” which he told a reporter in a very difficult way. difficulties.

“His father had the image of being a tough, tough politician,” said Lawrence Martin, a longtime Canadian political columnist based in Washington, DC.

The younger Trudeau continued to defy the odds by pulling off a resounding victory for his Liberal Party, moving them from third place in parliament to the top post in his first election.

“This style makes him feel that he can overcome great obstacles,” Martin said, adding that, politically, Trudeau operates with “a lot of self-confidence”.

Trudeau’s way of governing became difficult soon after taking office, after he was involved in several political scandals.

In her first term, Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould – the first woman of her kind to hold the job – dismissed what she described as a bid to disrupt and “veiled threats” from government officials who want the company to be held accountable. .

When he ran for re-election in 2019, Trudeau’s re-election campaign was rocked by photos released showing him as a teenager wearing triple brownface.

And a year later, in 2020, Trudeau faced yet another moral crisis related to the government’s large-scale union of a youth group that had worked with Trudeau’s relatives.

But in the face of every challenge, Trudeau remained strong. He also won elections twice, making him the longest-serving leader of his G7 peers.

“Trudeau has survived a lot,” Prof Blake said, noting that his political and leadership success had won many members of his party loyalty despite his missteps.

Although Trudeau has weathered many storms, there are signs that his time is up.

First, history is not on his side. Only one Canadian Prime Minister, Sir John A MacDonald – the country’s first – served four consecutive terms.

Trudeau is also working against growing popularity. A September poll from Ipsos said nearly two-thirds of Canadians disapprove. Only 26% of those polled said Trudeau was the prime minister’s choice, putting him 19 points behind Conservative leader Poilievre.

And there is steadily dwindling support within Trudeau’s party. Meanwhile, at least 18 Liberal MPs have called on their leader to resign.

“They’re fooling themselves if they think we can go on like this,” New Brunswick MP Wayne Long told reporters this week.

“It is unfair to us parliamentarians, it is unfair to the minister and most importantly it is unfair to the country. We have to go with a new way and start again.”

According to Long, who led the push to remove Trudeau, up to 50 of the 153 Liberal MPs want him to step down immediately. Almost the same people are Trudeau loyalists, he said, and the rest are on the fence.

“There are party loyalists who like him and, you know, want to support him,” Martin said. a DC-based columnist. “But if you had a secret Liberal caucus vote on whether he should stay or not, he would be defeated.”

The prime minister also appears to be under pressure to avoid his rival Poilievre, Mr Martin said.

“He doesn’t want to go back, and he wants to take Pierre Poilievre, who he hates,” he said.

Trudeau’s persistence in the face of political predictions has drawn comparisons with US President Joe Biden, who withdrew his vote just months before the November election.

Prof Blake said Trudeau’s legacy, like Biden’s, would depend on how he came out. Fighting a losing battle, he said, would give Trudeau a “permanent scar”. But the Prime Minister has an amazing ability to survive, he said.

“He’s been a survivor, and he hasn’t acted normal. Will normality – whatever it is – fall into place this time? Maybe, but I’m not sure.”

Trudeau’s challenge is similar to that of his father, who won three consecutive elections, and won a fourth after leaving power for less than a year.

But by 1984, 15 years after he became prime minister, the elder Trudeau – like his son now – faced a dire choice. It seemed that he would not win the next election if he stayed. He decided to quit, telling people he made the decision after walking through a snowstorm in Ottawa.

Since then, the phrase “walking in the snow” has been synonymous with quitting politics in Canada. This Christmas, it remains to be seen whether Trudeau will travel alone.