Oil demand to remain at current levels until at least 2040, Vitol says

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According to the new forecast by the world’s largest independent energy dealer, the global demand for oil will not decrease until at least 20 years, the last signal that will struggle to break the dependence on petroleum.

Vitle, which is transacing almost percent of the world’s oil supply every day, will rise to the global demand at the end of this decade, and then expect to return to the current level of about 105MN B/D in 20 years.

“Demand is expected to be equal with today in 2040,” it is seen by the Financial Times and released on Sunday because of its long -term demand outlook. This is the first time the privately holding trading company has published internal calculations on energy demand.

The forecast sets the vitol except the International Energy Agency, which is expected to promote the demand for oil in 2021, 105.6mn B/DA. Prediction is also different from the makers by BP.

The British Major reads extensively Power outlook In July, the demand for oil will be in the end of this decade and about 91.4 million B/D will fall in 2040. Even it was 6 percent higher than its last forecast, it indicates that the BPO expects slower energy transfer than the previous thought.

The demand for long -term oil demands spread between various forecasts reflects the challenges of forecasting, especially when the speed of adoption of new technologies as electric vehicles and sustainable airline fuel remains uncertain.

A few weeks after Donald Trump’s election, Vitle’s bullish view came, promising to increase the production of US President fossil fuel. The agency has said that despite the growing population, economic growth and urbanization cleaner fuel, it will support the demand for oil despite efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

Vitle said that some oil products like petrol were expected to decrease. It has predicted that the demand for global petrol will be reduced by 4.5MN B/D by 2040, the mass of inverter cars will already decrease in China due to the rollout.

However, according to Vitle’s analysis, such decrease will be offset by increasing the demand for plastic and liquid petroleum gas (LPG) made from petrochemicals as heating and cooking fuel in the developing economy.

The demand for oil in the petrochemicals industry will increase by 6MN B/D by 2040, it said. Meanwhile, the cost of LPG is expected to increase by 1.7Mn B/D compared to the period because more people in the developing economy switch from more dangerous solid fuel in bottled gas.

Among the product traders, Vitle was one of the long -term bullshit of oil demand for oil demand by achieving the largest single refinery in the Mediterranean last year.

So far that strategy has been successful and has made Vitle one of the most profitable companies in the world on every employee. It has made the net profit $ 15 billion in 2022 And $ 13 billion in 2023 The oil markets rilding as a geo -political barrier.

Vitle owns about 450 senior partners and appoints about 1,700, originally spread to London, Geneva, Singapore and Houston’s trading hubs.