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Mexico is scrambling to provide additional shelter capacity for tens of thousands of people in US border towns, one of which has declared a state of emergency ahead of Donald Trump’s plan to remove a record number of migrants.
People briefed on the plan said at least 60,000 additional shelters are being created after the US president-elect promised the largest mass deportation in the country’s history, targeting people in the US illegally and with criminal records.
About half of the estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrants in the United States are Mexican. About 662,000 non-citizens in the United States have been convicted of or are facing pending criminal charges, According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
This week the city of Tijuana declared a state of emergency due to the expected arrivals, while the mayor in nearby Mexicali said the city would convert into a convention center to receive the people.
Two people with knowledge of the plan said the federal government had hoped to temporarily open 25 shelters, each with a capacity of 2,500, to receive deported Mexicans, but kept the plan quiet and flexible because the numbers were uncertain.
The government declined to comment and the FT referred to President Claudia Schönbaum’s public messages on the matter.
Trump, who is inaugurated on Monday, has threatened to impose a 25 percent tariff on all exports to the United States if Mexico does not do more to stop migrants and Drugs cross the border. He has legal options to deport people, including executive orders and public health restrictions.
Sheinbaum has largely taken a harsher public response to Trump than some other world leaders, Indication of retaliatory duties.
The leftist leader said his party had a plan to respond to the deportations but would not provide details ahead of time. The government will have to deal with this influx while implementing double-digit budget cuts for the Foreign Ministry and the National Migration Institute.
A planned “panic button” app for migrants to alert their nearest consulate if they believe they are about to be detained for deportation has not yet been launched due to technical problems. Additional lawyers will be present at Mexico’s 53 consulates in the United States.
The government even a The New Nationalist Anthem For immigrants.
“We’ve been working for months, since President Trump announced this, about getting our citizens the best possible way,” Sheinbaum said this week. “Of course, we disagree [with the deportations]”
Trump’s tough stance on the border was one of the drivers of his November election victory after crossings into the US reached record levels during Joe Biden’s presidency. But a crackdown by Mexico at the behest of Washington, along with expanded legal channels, has reduced irregular crossings in the past year.
The United States has carried out deportations for most of its history, with a record number removed in fiscal year 2012 under President Barack Obama, when ICE deported more than 409,000 people. According to US government data, in fiscal year 2024, Biden has removed more than 271,000 people.
However, both the scale and profile of deported migrants may now change significantly.
During Trump’s first term, Mexico turned back migrants from around the world, initially those who awaited asylum claims and later those who returned across the border during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Shinbaum suggested this month that he would be open to accepting other nationalities, but it was unclear whether Mexico would take back citizens deported from inside the U.S. as well as those near the border.
Returning migrants to their home countries presents additional legal and practical difficulties for the United States where those countries lack repressive regimes or friendly relations with Washington.
“If a Venezuelan or Nicaraguan is arrested in Chicago after five years in the U.S. and it’s impossible to fly them to Caracas or Managua, would the administration expect Mexico to take them in, too?” said Adam Isaacson, director of defense oversight in the Washington office on Latin America.
The number may not rise immediately, as Trump faces challenges including a lack of detention space, flights and the cooperation of some police forces.
Chad Wolf, Trump’s former acting secretary of homeland security, suggested the initial target could exceed Obama-era deportation levels.
“I guess if they can beat it in the first year, it’s a win,” he told the FT. “They have to scale it to places where it hasn’t been scaled before. . . That’s going to take all the time.”
The economic and social impact of the program can be significant for both parties. US industries like construction and agriculture rely on undocumented labor, while remittances to Mexico were worth $63 billion in 2023 — more than foreign investment or tourism.
People who work with migrants in Mexico say thousands of people are at risk of being recruited by gangs if they are dumped in northern cities heavily rife with organized crime.
According to Maggie Loredo, an activist who works with deported migrants in Mexico, Mexico has historically lacked the infrastructure to reintegrate returning citizens.
“There’s really nothing for those who are incarcerated,” he said. “Those people are in a more vulnerable situation.”
Additional deportations will require shelter, transportation, identification, job fairs and mental health resources, said Andrew Seeley, director of the Washington-based Migration Policy Institute.
“Mexican Govt[does]. . . Must be ready in the next six months,” he said, adding that “we must find ways to integrate migrants from other countries who will be stuck in Mexico”.
