What happens if TikTok is banned?

TikTok will be banned in the US on January 19 – unless the Supreme Court approves it the last valid method of origin its Chinese owner, ByteDance, that doing so would be unconstitutional.

But even if the nation’s highest judges agree with lower courts — and Congress — that the tower poses a threat to national security, will that stop Americans from using it?

Will there be ways to circumvent the ban — or will president-elect Donald Trump find a way to stop a law he says he opposes, even if the courts will uphold it?

And whatever happens to TikTok, who will benefit from the uncertainty surrounding its future?

The way the US can ban TikTok is to order app stores, such as the Google Play Store and Apple’s App Store, to make it unavailable for download in the region.

US lawmakers have already told tech companies to be ready to remove the app from their stores if the ban goes into effect.

This means that people will no longer be able to use official methods to access TikTok – although it may also mean that people who already have it still have it on their phones.

Because the app will no longer be available to the public, new updates would no longer be available to users in the US – which would make the app difficult, and ultimately, unusable.

Not to mention that many updates are issued to fix security holes in the software, so if TikTok stops getting updates that could expose the hacker and millions of devices they can achieve.

Yes, there are ways around such restrictions.

There are already many videos circulating on TikTok informing users how to use a VPN (private network) – a way to pretend you’re in another country.

The area of ​​the software store can also be changed on many devices, so that anyone can access software from other countries – although this can cause other problems, not to mention the violation of service contracts.

It is also possible to install software downloaded from the Internet by modifying the tool – which may violate copyright law – and comes with its own risks. However, the government is also expecting this, so it also wants to ban “Internet access services” to prevent people from using the software.

So if the ban took this form it seems that those who are determined to use TikTok when it goes live will be able to do so – but it won’t be what they are used to.

There are other measures available to the government – for example, when India banned TikTok in 2020, it ordered internet providers to stop using the app.

And even if people use a VPN, there are ways TikTok can detect if someone is in the US – and then just show them a screen saying the app isn’t available in their country.

It remains to be seen whether TikTok will decide to help the government in their ban – but Reuters reports that it plans to do so.

TikTok’s lawyer told the Supreme Court that he believes the app will “go dark” in the US unless it rules in its favor.

The complexity of the matter means that even experts do not know what happens next.

Professor Milton L. Mueller of the Georgia Institute of Technology – who submitted a legal brief in support of TikTok – said that the lack of clarity on how the US can expand its power in law enforcement makes it difficult to determine what will happen if the ban continues. hard to know.

But he said what is clear is how it will affect users and the Internet.

“It would allow the distribution of the Internet across national or international borders,” he said.

Trump has made it clear that he opposes the law – which will take effect the day before he returns to office – asking the Supreme Court to delay its implementation as he seeks “a political solution.”

The upcoming national security advisor Mike Waltz told Fox News that the president-elect wants to “keep” TikTok regardless of the court’s decision, saying that the access of Americans to the platform and their data will be preserved.

The exact method of doing this is not known, though – according to the Washington Post – One option being considered is for Trump to sign an executive order blocking the implementation of the law.

“I don’t want to go too far on our executive orders, but we’re going to make room for this agreement,” Waltz said.

Another option would be for Trump to let the law stand but tell the Justice Department not to use it.

The government would have told Apple and Google that they are not penalized for continuing to allow access to TikTok, meaning that the law would still be in place but would be ineffective.

Obviously, the companies would not be comfortable breaking the law even if they were told it was okay – because it would require them to take the word of the President to avoid punishment.

TikTok is said to have 170 million users in the US who, on average, spend 51 minutes a day on the app in 2024.

Ban TikTok or make it obsolete and this creates a huge opportunity for its competitors in the technology says Jasmine Enberg, an expert at Insider Intelligence.

“Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts with Meta, by Google, are great for users, creators, and advertisers,” he says.

Facebook could also benefit, although Ms Enberg says that, like all Meta platforms, changes in conflicting principles announced by CEO Mark Zuckerberg may reduce his interest.

Users bring advertisers – so banning would be a huge financial boost for those platforms.

“Advertising executives we spoke with confirmed that they will shift their ad spend to Meta and Google if they can no longer advertise on TikTok – this is what we saw in India when they banned TikTok in 2020”, said Forrester. Senior consultant Kelsey Chickering.

Lemon8, which is also owned by ByteDance, would have been the most obvious place to target the ban – but the law says it also applies to other apps owned or operated by the company. This means that Lemon8 will probably face the problem of not being available in the US.

Other potential winners include Twitch, which made its name hosting livestreams – a popular feature on TikTok. Twitch is very popular among gamers, although it continues to grow and expand.

Other Chinese platforms, such as Xiaohongshu – known as RedNote among US users – has seen rapid growth in the US and UK.

However, some say that there is no existing app that can replace TikTok, especially its TikTok Shop feature, which allows users to buy products directly from videos, making more money for US creators.

Craig Atkinson, CEO of the digital advertising agency Code3, said that there is no direct competition that people can easily convert to – and he says that his agency is signing new contracts with clients to create TikTok Shop campaigns at the end of December.

So far, ByteDance has confirmed that no sale of its assets to the US is on the table.

But will this change if it is banned – and the president who prides himself on the “art of cooperation” returns to the White House?

Prospective buyers continue to line up – and Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday that the company is looking to sell to billionaire Elon Musk, though TikTok has explained this as “fantasy”.

Former Trump Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and billionaire businessman Frank McCourt are among those who have already expressed interest in buying.

Mr. McCourt, the former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team, said he got $20 billion in word-of-mouth from a group of investors for TikTok.

There is a far-left — and narrow — place they want to belong.

The world’s biggest YouTuber MrBeast He has said that now he wants to make a deal after he had billions approaching him about it.

Although it may seem like a joke, they have financial incentives to try to save the program – MrBeast has more than 100m followers on TikTok.