Why Somalilanders are smitten with Donald Trump

Many people in Somaliland are convinced that the United States, under the leadership of Donald Trump, is about to become the first country in the world to recognize a country that calls itself itself.

The region declared independence 33 years ago after Somalia descended into civil war – and has largely operated as a stable state ever since.

“Donald is our savior. He is a wise and helpful man. God bless America,” says university student Aisha Ismail, whose voice vibrates with joy and hope.

He is speaking to me from Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland – a city 850km (530 miles) north of Mogadishu, the seat of Somalia’s government.

For those in Mogadishu, Somaliland is an invisible part of Somalia.

“I doubt Donald Trump knows what Somaliland is, never mind where it is,” said Abdi Mohamud, a data analyst in Mogadishu, whose voice was starting to shake.

“I’m spitting fire.”

He is very angry because Ms Ismail’s biggest hope is not a dream, especially in the long run.

Powerful and influential Republicans are pushing for the same, including Congressman Scott Perry who launched it last month a bill that seeks US recognition in Somaliland.

It followed publication in April 2023 of Project 2025a map of Trump’s second presidency created by the well-known rights organization the Heritage Foundation and more than 100 other organizations

The document mentions only two African states in sub-Saharan Africa – Somaliland and Djibouti – and calls for “the recognition of the government of Somaliland as a bulwark against US aggression in Djibouti”.

However, the fact that sub-Saharan Africa occupies less than two pages in the 900-plus page index suggests that the continent is very low on the list.

Also, there is no guarantee that the incoming administration will follow through on policies, some of which Trump has previously rejected.

But one thing is clear. The US has already started to change its opinion on Somaliland, away from Mogadishu, which is known as the “one plan” for Somalia.

Somalia has taken a toll on the US in financial, aid and human resources since the early 1990s when the bodies of 18 American soldiers were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu after US helicopters were shot down by Somali militants.

The battle, known as “Black Hawk Down”, was America’s worst in terms of casualties since the Vietnam War.

“Anything that wants to recognize Somaliland’s independence will not conflict with Somalia’s sovereignty and destabilize the region by setting a dangerous example,” says the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Somali government Ali Mohamed Omar.

The African Union and other international authorities believe that integrity is important. Recognizing Somaliland would cause conflict with separatists around the world who want to recognize the territories they claim.

Omar also expressed concern over the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from Somalia the majority of American troops who have been fighting al-Shabab, known to be closely linked to al-Qaeda.

Under the leadership of Joe Biden, about 500 US troops are in Somalia – doing special operations and training Somalia’s elite military unit, Danab, which means “Lightning” and has proven more effective than Somalia’s regular army in eliminating al-Shabab.

The Americans have an air base in Baledogle, northwest of Mogadishu, and carry out frequent airstrikes against Islamist militants.

“Leaving would create insecurity, strengthen terrorist groups and threaten stability not only in Somalia but also in the Horn of Africa,” Omar warned.

The minister’s comments are similar but more testy than Somalia’s response to the agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia where information will be provided by sea exchange.

I received calls at night from Somalis who said they couldn’t sleep because of the conflicting views.

Somalia’s Minister of Environment at the time, Aden Ibrahim Aw Hirsi, told me at the time: “You always deal with ‘political bombs’ in your report.

“People here are talking about a political earthquake. This is very dangerous. It is a tsunami.”

Turkey has acted as a mediator to resolve the conflict but the fact that Somalia has recently signed a $600 (£492,000) annual contract with Washington’s leading lobbying firm, BGR Group, shows that it has concerns about relations with the Trump administration.

US last month he did not vote for the UN Security Council resolution to provide the latest funding for the African Union military intervention in Somalia.

The main architect of Republican African thinking, especially on the Somalia issue, is Joshua Meservey, who recently left the Heritage Foundation for the right-leaning Hudson Institute.

“The Somaliland case in the US context is very compelling,” he argues. “I think the general question will be discussed, whether the north star is the best for US national interests in a practical way.”

African officials under the leadership of Mr. Trump have expressed one, including the former Secretary of the Secretary of Finance for Africa, Mr. Tibor Nagy, and the representative of Africa, Mr. Peter Pham, and those who support the independence of Somaliland.

Like many American Republicans, Somaliland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdirahman Dahir Adan, views the relationship as a compromise.

“If the deal is good for us, we’ll take it. If the US wants a military base here, we’ll give it to them.”

Supporters of awareness argue that Somaliland is at a point where several US interests are changing their interests – economic, military and strategic.

Mr. Meservey adds that the sector should be “rewarded” for following the principles of democracy, not relying on foreign aid and having a small government.

Its long coastline runs along one of the busiest roads in the world.

Yemen’s Houthi-backed rebels may have replaced Somali pirates as the region’s biggest traffic jam, but the violence remains the biggest threat to international trade and is pushing the region closer to war in the Middle East.

The conflict of foreign organizations along the coast of the Horn of Africa is a concern of the US, which established its largest military force in the world in Djibouti in 2002.

Russia has eyes on Port Sudan; The United Arab Emirates (UAE) used Eritrea’s Assab to fight the Houthis and Djibouti is under threat from foreign forces, including China, which not only has well-established military bases but also controls a major port.

Turkey’s largest river on foreign land flows along the Somali coast south of Mogadishu.

Dealing with a rising China is Trump’s top priority.

The US has accused the Chinese of interfering with its operations in Djibouti by shining lasers into the pilots’ eyes and wants to go elsewhere.

It also wants to disrupt China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is taking over much of Africa.

The Red Sea port of Berbera, even if you consider it part of Somaliland or Somalia, has a lot to offer as an alternative.

China does not exist; It is annoying that Taiwan in 2020 established diplomatic relations with the breakaway republic.

The UAE, a major US ally, operates a port that has recently been expanded and hopes to compete with Djibouti.

During the administration of Biden, American officials, including the head of the US Africa Command (Africom), visited the site in Berbera, which has a 4km railway that was mysteriously built by the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

This was later recognized by the US as an emergency landing site for the shuttles – interesting due to the space obsession of Trump’s friend Elon Musk.

In 2022, the US National Defense Authorization Act was amended to include Somaliland, improving defense cooperation and paving the way for stronger economic ties.

Republican officials have presented Somaliland as a good business opportunity, hoping to influence Trump’s deal-making process. Project 2025 used the word “hedge”.

A Somaliland ambassador to the United States said: “It depends on how they sell him.

Whether he means it or not, bringing up a popular story would be tantamount to Trump being disruptive.

It would impress him and he could brag about being the first.

It would also anger Somalia, a country he included on his 2018 list of “dangerous” countries and a destination for undocumented migrants, asylum seekers and failed terrorists.

There is already talk in Somaliland that the territory will be used as a “dumping ground” for such people in exchange for US recognition.

US scholar Ken Menkhaus, who has followed Somalia’s affairs for decades, brings a much-needed nuance to the debate.

“It is possible that we will see a major change in US policy in Somaliland and Somalia,” he says.

“Trump is very suspicious of foreign aid, suspicious of government building and an isolationist.”

The Horn of Africa must prepare for change.

Mary Harper has written two books about Somalia, including Everything You Told Me Is True, focusing on the lives of al-Shabab.