Where voters don’t want to throw the incumbents out — and why

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The author is chairman of Rockefeller International. His latest book ‘What’s wrong with capitalism?‘

As Donald Trump prepares to take office, his victory is still widely seen as part of a global story of frustrated voters turning against incumbent leaders. But this rebellion is not global. It is limited to the developed world.

Last year, ruling parties lost 85 percent of elections in developed countries, up from an average of 25 percent in the early 2000s. In developing countries, the mood is different. Incumbents lost about 25 percent of the 2024 election, down from 50 percent in the early 2000s. Opinion polls tell the same story: the share of respondents who approve of their leader has fallen to around 30 percent in developed countries, while holding steady above 50 percent in developing countries.

Incumbents are more popular than ever in the developing world. So what is behind this big deviation?

Hostility to the powers that be in Europe, Japan and the United States has been tied to varying degrees with immigration and a recent spike in the price of staple goods, feeding the perception that the system is increasingly rigged and biased against the average person. This is further fueling a long-term decline in public confidence in government. But these forces are less intense or absent at all in many developing democracies, including those in India, Indonesia and Mexico led by ruling parties.

Voters in the US and Europe said inflation was one of their biggest concerns last year, with the pandemic’s legacy leaving prices for basic needs painfully high. Because inflation rates rose much more sharply in developed countries, the shock felt by voters was more profound.

Egg prices in the U.S. by 2024, for example, are still 200 percent higher than they were before the pandemic — compared to about 50 percent in India and Indonesia. Even after adjusting for that larger increase in inflation, house prices rose 17 percent in developed countries, compared to just 3 percent in developing countries, which helps explain why unaffordable housing is driving strong anti-affordability sentiment in the US and UK.

Meanwhile, increased immigration has become a burning electoral issue in the West but not in developing countries, which are largely departure points rather than destinations for migrants.

The post-pandemic recovery, however, has yielded much Bigger gains for the rich than the restThe gap widened relatively slowly in the developing world. Since 1980, the top 1 percent’s income share has more than doubled to 21 percent in the United States, compared with an average increase of just 3 points to 18 percent in major developing economies. Most strikingly, Mexico is one of the few countries where the share of income is falling by 1 percent.

The growing effects of inflation, immigration and inequality help explain why only 20 percent of Americans express trust in government, up from 70 percent in the 1960s. In developing countries, confidence is building, buoyed by huge gains over the past decade in countries where incumbents won last year. About 50 percent of Mexicans and more than 70 percent of Indians and Indonesians now express trust in their government.

One reason for the increased confidence is the rapid digitization of government, which improves public service delivery by cutting out corrupt middlemen. By 2022, led by India’s gains, governments in developing countries will surpass their developed counterparts on the World Bank’s “technological maturity of government” index.

In the developing world, electoral struggles are more varied and localized. In Mexico, the ruling party won last year because of its record on fighting poverty, and in Indonesia, the popularity of outgoing President Joko Widodo led to accusations that his son was installed as his successor. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi lost his legislative majority, but still won a third term with more efficient distribution of welfare benefits. Across India, ruling parties have fared well in recent state elections as well.

These mood swings are likely to persist. In 2025, polls show that incumbents will lose three national elections in the developed world – Germany, Australia and Canada. There will be fewer major national elections in the developing world and emerging markets, but polls point to more mixed results. Incumbents are headed for national elections in Poland and Romania, victories in Ecuador and major legislative defeats in Argentina and the Philippines. For now, most people in the developing world see no compelling reason to lose their lips.