China’s December imports records a surprise jump, exports beat expectations

China’s December trade data beat expectations by a wide margin, with exporters continuing to anticipate shipments as concerns over additional tariffs grow, while the country’s stimulus measures appear to have began to support domestic consumption.

Exports in December jumped 10.7% from a year earlier, data from China customs authorities showed on Mondaybeating expectations for a 7.3% rise in a Reuters poll. That compares with a 6.7% increase in November and a 12.7% spike in October.

Customs data showed imports rose 1.0% last month from a year earlier, reversing the contraction in the previous two months.

Analysts expected imports to fall 1.5% annually. What do you compare with a fall greater than 3.9% in November and 2.3% in October.

Last year, China’s total yuan-denominated exports jumped 7.1% from the previous year, accelerating from a modest growth of 0.6% in 2023customs officials said at a press conference on Monday.

China’s imports last year increased by 2.3%, declining from a drop of 0.3% in 2023.

“We think that increased fiscal spending, most likely still focused on investment, will drive construction activity and increase demand for industrial commodities in the coming months,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

A prolonged housing crisis has hit domestic demand, leaving the country more dependent on exports to fuel its growth.

Economists expect trade has significantly supported China’s economic growth last year. GDP data is due later this week.

Exports have been a rare bright spot in China’s battered economy amid heightened trade tensions with its main trading partners — the United States, the European Union — but that growth could be in jeopardy after President elect of the United States Donald Trump returns to the White House.

Exports of electric vehicles and semiconductors increased 13.1% and 18.7% last year, respectivelyaccording to customs officials.

Trump – who is due to be inaugurated on January 20 – has allayed fears about higher tariffs on Chinese exports. He has promised an additional fee of 10%. on all Chinese goods entering the United States

The Chinese authorities have since the end of September increased political support to support the country’s economy at the time of growth and social tensions. But “a residue of caution and moderation remains,” Gabriel Wildau, Teneo’s chief executive, said in a note last Friday.

China has cut policy ratesloose property purchase restrictionsinjected liquidity in the financial market and also introduce a debt exchange program to ease the fiscal strains of local governments.

“Although leaders recognize the need to boost real GDP growth, Xi still seems reluctant to embrace the additional degree of stimulus needed to combat deflation,” Wildau added.

“Policymakers need to keep some stimulus powder dry to allow for a broad response if the tariff impact is severe,” he said, suggesting that uncertainty over export growth creates an additional reason for Beijing to to avoid a “big bang”. [stimulus] approach”.

Among a host of key economic data this week, China will release its GDP data for the full year and the fourth quarter on Friday. Growth is set at 5.1% annually in the last quarter of 2024, according to a Reuters poll.

For this year, the top management is committed to making momentum domestic consumption is a first priority while expanding fiscal spending to finance the trade policy of consumer goods and upgrading equipment. Launched in July last yearthe exchange program subsidizes consumers trade in old cars or household appliances and buy new ones at a discount.

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