Four ways this saga could go

In recent weeks, US President-elect Donald Trump has also expressed interest in taking control of Greenland, Denmark’s most autonomous Arctic territory and the world’s largest island.

He initially expressed the intention to buy Greenland in 2019, during his first term as president, but this week he continued, refusing to restrict economic or military power to control it.

Danish and European officials responded negatively, saying that Greenland is not for sale and that its territory should be preserved.

How can this be possible, with two Nato allies fighting over a large area that is 80% covered in ice but has a lot of untapped resources?

And how will the desire for freedom among Greenland’s 56,000 people, under Danish rule for 300 years, affect the outcome?

Here we look at four possible scenarios for Greenland’s future.

There are suggestions that Trump’s move is a distraction, a move for Denmark to bolster Greenland’s defenses in the face of threats from Russia and China seeking influence in the region.

last month, Denmark has announced a new war budget of $1.5bn (£1.2bn). for the Arctic. It was planned before Trump’s speech but the announcement came hours after it was described by Denmark’s defense minister as “shocking”.

“What was important in what Mr. Trump said was that Denmark must fulfill its obligations in the Arctic or must allow the US to do it,” said Elisabet Svane, Politiken newspaper’s chief political correspondent.

Marc Jacobsen, an associate professor at the Royal Danish Defense College, believes that this is a case of Trump “putting himself in office” while Greenland is using this opportunity to gain more international powers, as an important part of its independence.

So even if Trump has stopped paying more attention to Greenland now, which Professor Jacobsen thinks is very appropriate, he has put some attention on the issue.

But Greenland’s independence has been in the works for years, and some say the dispute could go the other way.

“I saw in the last few days that the PM of Greenland is calm in his words – for example. yes, we want independence but in the end,” says Svane.

There is an agreement in Greenland that independence will happen eventually, and that if Greenland votes, Denmark will agree and accept it.

However, it is also unlikely that Greenland will vote for independence unless its people are given guarantees that they can keep the money they receive from Denmark to pay for things like health care and the welfare system.

“The Prime Minister of Greenland may be in control now, but if he is going to call a referendum, he will need a convincing story about how to save Greenland’s economy,” said Ulrik Gad, a senior researcher at the group. Danish Institute for International Studies, told the BBC.

The next thing is a free association – something like the US currently has with the Pacific countries Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau.

Denmark has already opposed this in Greenland and the Faroe Islands, but according to Dr Gad, current Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is not against it.

“Danish understanding of Greenland’s history is better than it was 20 years ago,” he says, as Denmark acknowledges its colonial role.

Recent discussions “may be persuasive [Frederiksen] to say – it’s better to keep Denmark in the Arctic, to keep some kind of connection to Greenland, even if it’s loose”, he adds.

But even if Greenland is able to take out Denmark, it has become clear in recent years that it cannot take out the US. The Americans never left after taking control of the island during World War II, and felt it was essential to their security.

A treaty in 1951 confirmed Denmark’s priority on the island, but in reality, it gave the US everything it wanted.

Dr Gad said Greenlandic officials had contacted the last two US administrations about Washington’s position.

“Now they know that the US will not leave,” he said.

There have been suggestions that Trump’s economic claims are too dangerous for Denmark – where the US is raising tariffs on Danish, or even EU, goods, forcing Denmark to concede some kind to Greenland.

Professor Jacobsen says that the Danish government has been preparing for this, not because of the Arctic region.

Trump has been threatening a global tariff of 10% on all US goods which, among other things, could seriously affect European growth, and some Danish and other European companies are now considering setting up production bases in the US.

Possible options for raising prices include invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), Benjamin Cote of international law firm Pillsbury told the MarketWatch website.

One of the biggest Danish companies that could be affected by this is pharmaceuticals. The US receives products such as hearing aids and large amounts of insulin from Denmark, as well as the diabetes drug Ozempic, made by the Danish company Novo Nordisk.

Analysts say the price hikes that would result from these measures would not be favorable to the US public.

The “nuclear option” seems unlikely, but with Trump unable to prevent military action it must be considered.

In fact, it would not be difficult for the US to take control, as they have bases and many troops in Greenland.

“The US is already in power,” says Professor Jacobsen, adding that Trump’s comments appear to be uninformed and he doesn’t understand what he’s talking about.

That said, any use of military force by Washington would create a global event.

Svane said: “When they take over Greenland, they attack Nato. “That’s where it stops. Article 5 must be triggered. And if a Nato country attacks Nato, then there is no Nato.”

Dr Gad says Trump sounds like Chinese President Xi Jinping talking about Taiwan or Russia’s Vladimir Putin talking about Ukraine.

“They say that it is acceptable for us to take this place,” he says. “If we take him seriously this is bad for the whole Western alliance.”

Additional reporting by George Sandeman