World breaches 1.5C global warming target for first time in 2024

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The world breached 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming for the first time last year, top international agencies said, sparking fears that climate change is accelerating faster than expected as an “extraordinary” spike in global average temperatures.

Europe’s Copernicus Observatory confirmed on Friday that 2024 was the hottest year on record after greenhouse gas emissions hit new highs, with average surface temperatures 1.6C above pre-industrial levels.

It was the first calendar year that average temperatures exceeded the 2015 Paris Agreement target of below 2C of warming from pre-industrial times, and preferably within 1.5C.

“Honestly, I lack a metaphor to explain the warming we’re seeing,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus.

He added that a proliferation of climate disasters last year – from floods to heat waves – was not a statistical anomaly, but clearly linked to climate change driven by increases in carbon dioxide and methane.

Copernicus said the years 2015 to 2024 were the 10 warmest years on record.

The combined release of 2024 data from six climate-monitoring agencies comes days before President-elect Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement to combat climate change.

Some businesses around the world have also begun to weaken climate targets and scale back green efforts.

“Hitting 1.5C is like watching the first domino fall in a devastating chain reaction,” said Patrick McGuire, a climate researcher at the University of Reading. “We are playing with fire. Every fraction of a degree leads to more intense storms, longer droughts and more severe heat waves.”

The latest data does not represent a specific violation of the Paris Agreement, whose target refers to the average of temperatures measured over two decades.

But evidence that the world’s oceans have cooled more slowly than expected following the warming of the naturally occurring El Nino in the Pacific has raised concerns that climate change is accelerating.

Tim Lenton, chair of climate change and earth system science at the University of Exeter, added “what’s most interesting is how warm it was between 2024 and 2023”.

“This is a clear signal of instability in the climate — a less stable system undergoes larger and more persistent fluctuations.”

Human-induced climate change was the main driver of extreme air and sea surface temperatures in 2024, Copernicus said, while other factors, such as El Niño, which officially ended last June, also contributed.

This year is expected to be cooler than 2024, partly due to a reduction in the effects of El Niño, which is cyclical. Introduction a Weak La Nina cooling cycle The US Weather Service confirmed Thursday.

But Samantha Burgess of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said it would still rank among the three hottest on record.

“We now live in a very different climate than our parents and grandparents experienced,” he said, adding that it may have been 125,000 years since temperatures were as hot as they are today.

Copernicus said 2024 was the warmest year for all continental regions except Antarctica and Australasia, as well as for “size portions” of the world’s oceans, particularly the North Atlantic, Indian and Western Pacific oceans.

Global atmospheric water levels will reach record levels in 2024, 5 percent above the 1991-2020 average, “fueling unprecedented heat waves and heavy rainfall events, causing suffering for millions”, Burgess said.