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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
The author is a former head of MI6 and UK ambassador to the United Nations
We often think middle east As built throughout the Arab world. Baghdad and Damascus were the historical centers of power. In the 20th century, Cairo and Beirut became the cultural capitals of the region until they declined and their influence was overtaken by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf’s oil and gas resources.
Today, it is surprising that three of the strongest and most powerful countries in the region – Israel, Türkiye and Iran – are non-Arab countries. Each is led by an aging war horse. Benjamin Netanyahu has been Prime Minister of Israel for 17 of the last 28 years. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in power in Turkey for almost 22 years, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been Iran’s supreme leader for 35 years. Like the Bourbons of France 200 years ago, they learn nothing and forget nothing.
After the humiliating disaster of the brutal Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, Israel is back. Its armed forces and intelligence services have turned the tables not only on Hamas but also on Hezbollah and their sponsors in Iran. In the process, Netanyahu ignored the advice of Israel’s closest friends and showed scant regard for protecting civilian life. Long-term support for Israel in the West has waned, but its main enemies have been seriously weakened.
Israel has shown that it is a new Sparta – a small country with unrivaled military power. But its politicians reject the idea that a political solution with the Palestinians is necessary if the Jewish nation is to enjoy lasting peace and security. Israel has no plans for Gaza beyond an indefinite occupation, unless it is an unspoken plan to move Palestinians into Egypt and annex as much of the occupied West Bank as possible. One prediction we can make with confidence is, sadly, that an independent Palestinian state will be no closer in a year than it is now.
As the new year begins, Israel’s attention is focused on Iran, the biggest loser of 2024. Khamenei is visibly weakening, both physically and politically. The main candidate to succeed him is now his son Mojtaba. Second generation dictators come to power on the back of privileges and entitlements. They don’t bear the scars of struggle or learn the hard lessons their fathers earned. Hafez al-Assad was a ruthless Syrian leader, but he knew the limits of power and when to negotiate. His son Bashar did not have those skills. The result was more brutality and the regime collapsed over time.
The experience of losing Syrian allies will make Iran’s military wary of hereditary succession. They will try to ensure that a new supreme leader does not become all-powerful within the regime. But the new leaders of the stagnant autocracy could bring surprises. Deng Xiaoping and Mikhail Gorbachev are obvious examples. Saudi Arabia’s transformation under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is closer to home for Iran. Each recognized the weakness of their country and sought an economic and political The strategy that underpins authoritarian regimes for decades to come usually involves some openness to the outside world. This seems unlikely in Iran but should not be ruled out.
A weakened regime offers an opportunity for new negotiations, even if Khamenei Sr. hangs on for another year or two. Donald Trump may prefer a political deal to Netanyahu’s preferred military option to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel will argue that Tehran will stop negotiating while it secretly progresses toward nuclear weapons, for which strategic events are now more compelling to Iran. These are valid concerns. Khamenei distrusts America as much as American politicians distrust Iran. New leadership in Tehran may be needed before Iran can change course.
The very welcome surprise of 2024 was the fall of the Assad regime and the opening of a better future for the Syrian people. Turkey, like Israel, was victorious last year but has had trouble capitalizing on new opportunities. Erdogan appears to view Syria through the distorted prism of the Kurdish question, which will make it difficult for Syrian opposition leaders to unite and craft a new constitution that recognizes their country’s diversity — religious and ethnic.
Erdogan, a remarkable survivor, has built Turkey’s power throughout the region and in Africa. He showed that a philosophy of political Islam can be successful and need not lead to an Islamic state and strict Sharia law. In that sense, he could provide a model for Ahmed al-Shara, the leader of the HTS Islamist group that is now in power in Damascus.
Here’s a lesson for Western capitals and Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. We are right to be wary of Al-Shara’s extremist background. But the journey of young radicals from political violence to national leadership is a solid one. The diplomatic task ahead is to maximize the chances of success in Syria, to be bold in lifting sanctions, removing terrorist sanctions, and doing all we can to support the Syrian opposition in coming together.
The instinct of Western capitals seems to be to gradually pay the ropes and resist the Islamists on ideological grounds. But it’s a path that will make it more likely that we either end up in pieces like Libya or with a new dictatorship like Tunisia. Western nations also need to avoid the pitfalls of Bourbon.
